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作者：Arkolakis, Costas
作者单位：Yale University
摘要：This article develops an analytical framework to study firm and exporter growth and provides a dynamic foundation for a standard general equilibrium trade model. Firm-level growth is the result of idiosyncratic productivity improvements with a continuous arrival of new potential producers. A firm enters a market if it is profitable to incur the marginal cost to reach the first consumer and pays an increasing marketing cost to reach additional consumers. I calibrate the model using data on the ...
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作者：Baker, Scott R.; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J.
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Northwestern University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) based on newspaper coverage frequency. Several types of evidence-including human readings of 12,000 newspaper articles-indicate that our index proxies for movements in policy-related economic uncertainty. Our U.S. index spikes near tight presidential elections, Gulf Wars I and II, the 9/11 attacks, the failure of Lehman Brothers, the 2011 debt ceiling dispute, and other major battles over fiscal policy. Using firm-level data, we find ...
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作者：Artavanis, Nikolaos; Morse, Adair; Tsoutsoura, Margarita
作者单位：University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Amherst; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：We document that in semiformal economies, banks lend to tax-evading individuals based on the bank's assessment of the individual's true income. This observation leads to a novel approach to estimate tax evasion. We use micro-data on household credit from a Greek bank and replicate the bank underwriting model to infer the banks estimate of individuals' true income. We estimate that 43-45% of self-employed income goes unreported and thus untaxed. For 2009, this implies (sic)28.2 billion of unrep...
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作者：Khan, Adnan Q.; Khwaja, Asim I.; Olken, Benjamin A.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Performance pay for tax collectors has the potential to raise revenues, but might come at a cost if it increases the bargaining power of tax collectors vis-A -vis taxpayers. We report the first large-scale field experiment on these issues, where we experimentally allocated 482 property tax units in Punjab, Pakistan, into one of three performance pay schemes or a control. After two years, incentivized units had 9.4 log points higher revenue than controls, which translates to a 46% higher growth...
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作者：Barrot, Jean-Noel; Sauvagnat, Julien
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：This article examines whether firm-level idiosyncratic shocks propagate in production networks. We identify idiosyncratic shocks with the occurrence of natural disasters. We find that affected suppliers impose substantial output losses on their customers, especially when they produce specific inputs. These output losses translate into significant market value losses, and they spill over to other suppliers. Our point estimates are economically large, suggesting that input specificity is an impo...
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作者：Spiegler, Ran
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of London; University College London
摘要：I present a framework for analyzing decision making under imperfect understanding of correlation structures and causal relations. A decision maker (DM) faces an objective long-run probability distribution p over several variables (including the action taken by previous DMs). The DM is characterized by a subjective causal model, represented by a directed acyclic graph over the set of variable labels. The DM attempts to fit this model to p, resulting in a subjective belief that distorts p by fac...
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作者：Finkelstein, Amy; Gentzkow, Matthew; Williams, Heidi
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：We study the drivers of geographic variation in U.S. health care utilization, using an empirical strategy that exploits migration of Medicare patients to separate the role of demand and supply factors. Our approach allows us to account for demand differences driven by both observable and unobservable patient characteristics. Within our sample of over-65 Medicare beneficiaries, we find that 40-50% of geographic variation in utilization is attributable to demand-side factors, including health an...
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作者：Chen, Daniel L.; Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Shue, Kelly
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We find consistent evidence of negative autocorrelation in decision making that is unrelated to the merits of the cases considered in three separate high-stakes field settings: refugee asylum court decisions, loan application reviews, and Major League Baseball umpire pitch calls. The evidence is most consistent with the law of small numbers and the gambler's fallacy-people underestimating the likelihood of sequential streaks occurring by chance-leading to negatively autocorrelated decisions th...
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作者：Adda, Jerome
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：Viruses are a major threat to human health, and-given that they spread through social interactions-represent a costly externality. This article addresses three main questions: (i) what are the unintended consequences of economic activity on the spread of infections; (ii) how efficient are measures that limit interpersonal contacts; (iii) how do we allocate our scarce resources to limit the spread of infections? To answer these questions, we use novel high frequency data from France on the inci...
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作者：Saez, Emmanuel; Zucman, Gabriel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper combines income tax returns with macroeconomic household balance sheets to estimate the distribution of wealth in the United States since 1913. We estimate wealth by capitalizing the incomes reported by individual taxpayers, accounting for assets that do not generate taxable income. We successfully test our capitalization method in three micro datasets where we can observe both income and wealth: the Survey of Consumer Finance, linked estate and income tax returns, and foundations' ...
