Journal of Political Economy

最新文章

• Misconduct and Reputation under Imperfect Information AI翻译
  作者：Annan, Francis
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：Misconduct-market actions that are unethical and indicative of fraud-is a significant yet poorly understood issue that underlies many economic transactions. We design a field experiment to study the impact of two-sided antimisconduct information programs, which we deploy on the local markets for mobile money (human ATMs) in Ghana. The programs lead to a large reduction in misconduct (-21 percentage points=-72%) and, as a result, broader improvements in overall market activity, consumer welfare...
• Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade AI翻译
  作者：Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Ruhl, Kim J.; Steinberg, Joseph B.
  作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Syracuse University; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Toronto
  摘要：We study China's export growth to the United States from 1950-2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China's 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986-92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends s...
• Robert Lucas's Models of Firm Size Distributions and Investment AI翻译
  作者：Jovanovic, Boyan
  作者单位：New York University
  摘要：This paper examines three influential papers by Lucas that have become essential references in the economic literature. The first paper explores the size distributions of firms, while the other two investigate the relationship between firms' investments, their valuations, and their rates of growth. These seminal papers have inspired numerous subsequent studies, significantly advancing our understanding of firm dynamics and investment behavior.
• Micro and Macro Effects of Unemployment Insurance Policies: Evidence from Missouri AI翻译
  作者：Karahan, Fatih; Mitman, Kurt; Moore, Brendan
  作者单位：Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey; Stockholm University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Stanford University
  摘要：We develop a method to jointly measure the response of worker search effort (micro effect) and vacancy creation (macro effect) to changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. To implement this approach, we exploit an unexpected cut in UI durations in Missouri and provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of UI on the labor market. In our baseline specification, the data indicate that the cut in Missouri increased job-finding rates by 12% by raising firm vacancy crea...
• Scooped! Estimating Rewards for Priority in Science AI翻译
  作者：Hill, Ryan; Stein, Carolyn
  作者单位：Northwestern University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
  摘要：The scientific community assigns credit or priority to individuals who publish an important discovery first. We examine the impact of losing a priority race (colloquially known as getting scooped) on publication and career outcomes. To do so, we analyze data from structural biology where the nature of the scientific process together with the Protein Data Bank enables us to identify priority races and their outcomes. We find that scooped teams are less likely to publish in top journals and rece...
• Are Tax Cuts Contractionary at the Zero Lower Bound? Evidence from a Century of Data AI翻译
  作者：Cloyne, James; Dimsdale, Nicholas; Huertgen, Patrick
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oxford; Deutsche Bundesbank
  摘要：Popular New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that cuts in various types of distortionary taxes are contractionary when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We turn to a long span of history in the United Kingdom to test this hypothesis. Using a new long-run dataset of narrative-identified tax changes from 1918 to 2020, we show that tax cuts are expansionary in both low-interest-rate environments and more normal times. We do not find evidence of a deflationary spi...
• Borda's Rule and Arrow's Independence Condition AI翻译
  作者：Maskin, Eric
  作者单位：Harvard University
  摘要：We argue that Arrow's independence of irrelevant alternatives condition (IIA) is unjustifiably stringent because it rules out making a social welfare function sensitive to individuals' preference intensities. Accordingly, we propose a modified version of IIA, MIIA, that is a necessary and sufficient relaxation of IIA for taking account of intensities. Rather than obtaining an impossibility result, we show that MIIA together with several other axioms (satisfied by virtually all voting rules and...
• (Near-)Substitute Preferences and Equilibria with Indivisibilities AI翻译
  作者：Nguyen, Thanh; Vohra, Rakesh
  作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; University of Pennsylvania
  摘要：An obstacle to using market mechanisms to allocate indivisible goods is the lack of competitive equilibria (CEs). Arrow and Hahn introduced social-approximate equilibria: price vectors with small excess demands. We define preferences called Delta-substitutes, where social-approximate equilibria exist with good-by-good excess demand bounded by 2(Delta-1), independent of economy size. For Delta=1, CEs exist even with income effects. A Delta greater than 1 allows for richer substitutability and c...
• Belief Overreaction and Stock Market Puzzles AI翻译
  作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; La Porta, Rafael; Shleifer, Andrei
  作者单位：University of Oxford; Bocconi University; Brown University; Harvard University
  摘要：We construct an index of long-term expected earnings growth for S&P 500 firms and show that it has remarkable power to jointly predict future errors in expectations and stock returns, in both the aggregate market and the cross section. The evidence supports a mechanism whereby good news causes investors to become too optimistic about long-term earnings growth. This leads to inflated stock prices and, as beliefs are systematically disappointed, subsequent low returns in the aggregate market. Ov...
• Beyond the Balance Sheet Model of Banking: Implications for Bank Regulation and Monetary Policy AI翻译
  作者：Buchak, Greg; Matvos, Gregor; Piskorski, Tomasz; Seru, Amit
  作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
  摘要：We empirically document two adjustment margins that are usually absent from the predominant bank balance sheet lending view of financial intermediation. For the shadow bank substitution margin, shadow banks substitute for traditional banks among loans that are easily sold. For the balance sheet retention margin, banks switch between balance sheet lending and selling loans based on their balance sheet strength. Estimates from a structural model show that these margins significantly shape policy...