Trade Policy Dynamics: Evidence from 60 Years of US-China Trade

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Ruhl, Kim J.; Steinberg, Joseph B.
• 署名单位: University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Syracuse University; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/733420
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 713-749
• 关键词: uncertainty; COSTS; Heterogeneity; integration; AGREEMENTS; Brexit

摘要

We study China's export growth to the United States from 1950-2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China's 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986-92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends support our findings: industries more exposed to the 1980 reform have shed workers steadily since then without acceleration around China's WTO accession.