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作者：Bakkensen, Laura; Phan, Toan; Wong, Tsz-Nga
作者单位：University of Oregon; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We develop a credit search model with maturity choice where agents disagree on when a long-run disaster will damage collateral assets. It predicts that disaster-pessimistic agents are more likely to leverage risky asset purchases and prefer debt contracts with longer maturities. Intuitively, pessimists value the default option of debt contracts as implicit disaster insurance, whose coverage increases with maturity implicitly and costs less to optimistic lenders. Using high-resolution sea level...
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作者：Greenwald, Daniel L.; Lettau, Martin; Ludvigson, Sydney C.
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Why does the stock market rise and fall? From 1989 to 2017, the real per capita value of corporate equity increased at a 7.2% annual rate. We estimate that 40% of this increase was attributable to a reallocation of rewards to shareholders in a decelerating economy, primarily at the expense of labor compensation. Economic growth accounted for just 25% of the increase, followed by a lower risk price (21%) and lower interest rates (14%). The period 1952-88 experienced only one-third as much growt...
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作者：Mommaerts, Corina
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines whether informal care by family members influences the demand for long-term care insurance. Motivated by evidence that the availability of informal caregivers correlates with lower insurance demand and that informal care substitutes for formal care, I estimate a dynamic model of long-term care decisions between an elderly parent and her adult child. The availability of informal care lowers demand for insurance by 7 percentage points and suppresses Medicaid spending. A polic...
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作者：Chiappori, Pierre-Andre; Costa Dias, Monica; Meghir, Costas; Zhang, Hanzhe
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Bristol; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Michigan State University
摘要：Positive assortative matching refers to the tendency of individuals with similar characteristics to form partnerships. Measuring the extent to which assortative matching differs between two economies is challenging when the marginal distributions of the sorting characteristic (e.g., education) change for either or both sexes. We show how the use of different measures can generate different conclusions. We provide an axiomatic characterization for the odds ratio, normalized trace, and likelihoo...
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作者：Neumeyer, Pablo Andres; Nicolini, Juan Pablo
作者单位：Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
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作者：Conner, Peter; Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Persson, Petra
作者单位：Karolinska Institutet; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：We study the introduction of a noninvasive prenatal screening-cell-free DNA (cfDNA) screening-which is used to target a more costly invasive test that elevates miscarriage risk. Using Swedish administrative data, we document that coverage of cfDNA substantially increases cfDNA screening and reduces invasive testing. We develop and estimate a stylized model of prenatal choices and find that narrow targeting of cfDNA coverage can improve outcomes and reduce costs, while broader coverage also imp...
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作者：Doepper, Hendrik; MacKay, Alexander; Miller, Nathan H.; Stiebale, Joel
作者单位：University of Virginia; Georgetown University
摘要：We analyze the evolution of markups for consumer products in the United States from 2006 to 2019. Using detailed data on prices and quantities for products in more than 100 distinct categories, we obtain a panel of markups, marginal costs, and flexible consumer preferences. Our empirical strategy uses separate random coefficients logit models for each category and year and an assumption that firms set prices to maximize profits. We find that markups increased by about 30% on average over the s...
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作者：Khantadze, Davit; Kremer, Ilan; Skrzypacz, Andrzej
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem; University of Warwick; Stanford University
摘要：We consider a Bayesian persuasion model in which multiple receivers take one action each. We compare simultaneous procedures with sequential ones. In a simultaneous procedure, all the receivers act simultaneously following the realization of a single public signal. In a sequential procedure, receivers receive information and take actions sequentially. We characterize the conditions under which the optimal sequential procedure leads to a higher payoff and characterize the optimal ordering of ac...
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作者：Hirano, Tomohiro; Toda, Alexis Akira
作者单位：University of London; Royal Holloway University London; Emory University
摘要：Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the bubble necessity theorem in a plausible general class of economic models: with faster long-run economic growth (G) than dividend growth (Gd) and counterfactual long-run autarky interest rate (R) below dividend growth, all equilibria are bubbly with nonnegligible bubble sizes ...
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作者：Heese, Carl; Lauermann, Stephan
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper studies a large majority election with voters who have heterogeneous private preferences and exogenous private information about an unknown state of the world. We show that a Bayesian persuader can achieve any state-contingent outcome in some equilibrium by providing additional information. In this setting, without the persuader's additional information, a version of the Condorcet jury theorem holds, in the sense that outcomes of large elections satisfy full-information equivalence....
