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作者：Hodgson, Charles; Lewis, Gregory
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop and estimate a model of consumer search with spatial learning. Consumers make inferences from previously searched objects to unsearched objects that are nearby in attribute space, generating path dependence in search sequences. The estimated model rationalizes patterns in data on online consumer search paths: search tends to converge to the chosen product in attribute space, and consumers take larger steps away from rarely purchased products. Eliminating spatial learning reduces con...
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作者：La Ferrara, Eliana
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作者：Chen, Yiting; Zhong, Songfa
作者单位：Lingnan University; National University of Singapore; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We conduct a series of experiments and document a robust behavioral pattern whereby people behave more morally in uncertain environments than degenerate deterministic ones. We show that this pattern is weakened when the moral implication of behavior is diminished or when uncertainty pertains to others rather than oneself. These findings are incompatible with standard models that respect dominance. We propose a mechanism based on the anxiety aspect of uncertain environments whereby people act m...
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作者：Alonso, Ricardo; Padro I Miquel, Gerard
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Yale University; Yale University
摘要：Two opposed interested parties (IPs) compete to influence citizens with heterogeneous priors which receive news items produced by a variety of sources. The IPs fight to capture the coverage conveyed in these items. We characterize the equilibrium level of capture of item as well as the equilibrium level of information transmission. Capture increases the prevalence of the ex ante most informative messages and can explain the empirical distribution of slant at the news-item level. Opposite captu...
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作者：Buchholz, Nicholas; Doval, Laura; Kastl, Jakub; Matejka, Filip; Salz, Tobias
作者单位：Princeton University; Columbia University; University of Cambridge; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We recover valuations of time using detailed data from a large ride-hail platform, where drivers bid on trips and consumers choose between a set of rides with different prices and wait times. Leveraging a consumer panel, we estimate demand as a function of both prices and wait times and use the resulting estimates to recover heterogeneity in the value of time across consumers. We study the welfare implications of personalized pricing and its effect on the platform, drivers, and consumers. Taki...
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作者：Cesa-Bianchi, Nicolo; Colomboni, Roberto; Kasy, Maximilian
作者单位：University of Milan; Polytechnic University of Milan; University of Oxford
摘要：We consider the problem of repeatedly choosing policies to maximize social welfare. Welfare is a weighted sum of private utility and public revenue. Earlier outcomes inform later policies. Utility is not observed, but indirectly inferred. Response functions are learned through experimentation.We derive a lower bound on regret, and a matching adversarial upper bound for a variant of the Exp3 algorithm. Cumulative regret grows at a rate of T2/3. This implies that (i) welfare maximization is hard...
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作者：Sadler, Evan
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：I propose a method for selecting seeds to maximize contagion. First, fit a random graph model using a coarse categorization of individuals. Next, compute a seed multiplier for each category-this is the average number of new infections a seed generates. Finally, seed the category with the highest multiplier. Relative to the most common methods, my approach requires far less granular data, and it consumes less computing power-the problem scales with the number of categories, not the number of in...
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作者：Laajaj, Rachid; Macours, Karen
作者单位：University of Los Andes Venezuela; Paris School of Economics; INRAE
摘要：Studies on agricultural technology adoption often focus on one input, practice, or package, which is analytically useful, but may overlook the complexities involved with multidimensional learning needed for a lot of agricultural decisions. In Kenya, we study farmers' dynamic learning (from oneself and others) and adoption decisions over six seasons after randomly inviting them to participate in agronomic research trials, comparing different combinations of inputs during three consecutive seaso...
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作者：Seibold, Arthur; Seitz, Sebastian; Siegloch, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Munich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Manchester; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); University of Cologne
摘要：Public disability insurance (DI) programs in many countries face growing fiscal pressures, prompting efforts to reduce spending. In this paper, we investigate the welfare effects of expanding the role of private insurance markets in the face of public DI cuts. We exploit a reform that abolished one part of German public DI and use unique data from a large insurer. We document modest crowding-out effects of the reform, such that private DI take-up remains incomplete. We find no adverse selectio...
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作者：Arias, Jonas E.; Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F.; Waggoner, Daniel F.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：There has been a call for caution regarding the standard procedure for Bayesian inference in set-identified structural vector autoregressions on the grounds that the common practice of using a uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices induces a non-uniform prior for individual impulse responses or other quantities of interest. This paper challenges this call by formally showing that when the focus is on joint inference, the uniform prior over the set of orthogonal matrices is not only ...
