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作者：Colacito, Ric; Croce, Max; Ho, Steven; Howard, Philip
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; Bocconi University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Columbia University; Tsinghua University; Wake Forest University
摘要：We study the response of international investment flows to short- and long-run growth news. Among developed G7 countries, positive long-run news for domestic productivity induces a net outflow of investments, in contrast to the effects of short-run growth shocks. We document that a standard Backus, Keho, and Kydland (1994) (BKK) model fails to reproduce this novel empirical evidence. We augment this model with Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences (EZ-BKK) and characterize the resulting recursive...
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作者：Culp, Christopher L.; Nozawa, Yoshio; Veronesi, Pietro
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; University of Geneva; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We present a novel empirical benchmark for analyzing credit risk using pseudo firms that purchase traded assets financed with equity and zero-coupon bonds. By no-arbitrage, pseudo bonds are equivalent to Treasuries minus put options on pseudo firm assets. Empirically, like corporate spreads, pseudo bond spreads are large, countercyclical, and predict lower economic growth. Using this framework, we find that bond market illiquidity, investors' overestimation of default risks, and corporate fric...
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作者：di Giovanni, Julian; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Mejean, Isabelle
作者单位：ICREA; Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite Paris Saclay; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris
摘要：This paper investigates the role of individual firms in international business-cycle comovement using data covering the universe of French firm-level value added and international linkages over the period 1993-2007. At the micro level, trade and multinational linkages with a particular foreign country are associated with a significantly higher correlation between a firm and that foreign country. The impact of direct linkages on comovement at the micro level has significant macro implications. ...
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作者：Monte, Ferdinando; Redding, Stephen J.; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
作者单位：Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：We provide theory and evidence that the elasticity of local employment to a labor demand shock is heterogeneous depending on the commuting openness of the local labor market. We develop a quantitative general equilibrium model that incorporates spatial linkages in goods markets (trade) and factor markets (commuting and migration). We quantify this model to match the observed gravity equation relationships for trade and commuting. We find that empirically-observed reductions in commuting costs ...
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作者：Conconi, Paola; Garcia-Santana, Manuel; Puccio, Laura; Venturini, Roberto
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：Recent decades have witnessed a surge of trade in intermediate goods and a proliferation of free trade agreements (FTAs). FTAs use rules of origin (RoO) to distinguish goods originating from member countries from those originating from third countries. We focus on the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the world's largest FTA, and construct a unique dataset that allows us to map the input-output linkages in its RoO. Exploiting cross-product and cross-country variation in treatment ov...
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作者：Crawford, Gregory S.; Pavanini, Nicola; Schivardi, Fabiano
作者单位：University of Zurich; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Tilburg University; Luiss Guido Carli University
摘要：We study the effects of asymmetric information and imperfect competition in the market for small business lines of credit. We estimate a structural model of credit demand, loan use, pricing, and firm default using matched firm-bank data from Italy. We find evidence of adverse selection in the form of a positive correlation between the unobserved determinants of demand for credit and default. Our counterfactual experiments show that while increases in adverse selection increase prices and defau...
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作者：Kaplan, Greg; Moll, Benjamin; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We revisit the transmission mechanism from monetary policy to household consumption in a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model. The model yields empirically realistic distributions of wealth and marginal propensities to consume because of two features: uninsurable income shocks and multiple assets with different degrees of liquidity and different returns. In this environment, the indirect effects of an unexpected cut in interest rates, which operate through a general equilibrium incre...
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作者：Fuest, Clemens; Peichl, AndreasA; Siegloch, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); University of Mannheim
摘要：This paper estimates the incidence of corporate taxes on wages using a 20-year panel of German municipalities exploiting 6,800 tax changes for identification. Using event study designs and difference-in-differences models, we find that workers bear about one-half of the total tax burden. Administrative linked employer-employee data allow its to estimate heterogeneous firm and worker effects. Our findings highlight the importance of labor market institutions and profit-shifting opportunities fo...
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作者：Bick, Alexander; Fuchs-Schuendeln, Nicola; Lagakos, David
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Goethe University Frankfurt; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper builds a new internationally comparable database of hours worked to measure how hours vary with income across and within countries. We document that average hours worked per adult are substantially higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The pattern of decreasing hours with aggregate income holds for both men and women, for adults of all ages and education levels, and along both the extensive and intensive margin. Within countries, hours worked per worker are a...
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作者：Kolesar, Michal; Rothe, Christoph
作者单位：Princeton University; Princeton University; University of Mannheim
摘要：We consider inference in regression discontinuity designs when the running variable only takes a moderate number of distinct values. In particular, we study the common practice of using confidence intervals (CIs) based on standard errors that are clustered by the running variable as a means to make inference robust to model misspecification (Lee and Card 2008). We derive theoretical results and present simulation and empirical evidence showing that these CIs do not guard against model misspeci...
