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作者：Deb, Rahul; Pai, Mallesh M.; Said, Maher
作者单位：University of Toronto; Rice University; New York University
摘要：Motivated by the question of how one should evaluate professional election forecasters, we study a novel dynamic mechanism design problem without transfers. A principal who wishes to hire only high-quality forecasters is faced with an agent of unknown quality. The agent privately observes signals about a publicly observable future event, and may strategically misrepresent information to inflate the principal's perception of his quality. We show that the optimal deterministic mechanism is simpl...
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作者：Antecol, Heather; Bedard, Kelly; Stearns, Jenna
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Many skilled professional occupations are characterized by an early period of intensive skill accumulation and career establishment. Examples include law firm associates, surgical residents, and untenured faculty at research-intensive universities. High female exit rates are sometimes blamed on the inability of new mothers to survive the sustained negative productivity shock associated with childbearing and early childrearing in these environments. Gender-neutral family policies have been adop...
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作者：Plantin, Guillaume; Tirole, Jean
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Universite de Toulouse; Universite de Toulouse
摘要：Building Of the idea that accounting matters for corporate governance, this paper studies the equilibrium interaction between the measurement rules that firms find privately optimal, firms' governance, and the liquidity in the secondary market for their assets. This equilibrium approach reveals an excessive use of market-value accounting: corporate performance measures rely excessively on the information generated by other firms' asset sales and insufficiently on the realization of a firm's ow...
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作者：Matsumoto, Brett
摘要：The empirical methodology used by Persson and Rossin-Slater (2018) to estimate the causal effect of in utero exposure to stress contains a potentially significant,flaw. They define the control group in a way that may bias their causal estimates and can lead to the finding of a significant relationship when there is none. In this note, I describe the source of the bias and suggest an alternative specification of the control group.
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作者：Luttmer, Erzo F. P.; Samwick, Andrew A.
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Policy uncertainty reduces individual welfare when individuals have limited opportunities to mitigate or insure against the resulting consumption fluctuations. We field an original survey to measure the degree of perceived policy uncertainty in Social Security benefits and to estimate the impact of this uncertainly on individual welfare. Our central estimates show that on average individuals are willing to forgo 6 percent of the benefits they are supposed to get under current law to remove the...
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作者：Hsu, Joanne W.; Matsa, David A.; Melzer, Brian T.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies the impact of unemployment insurance (UI) on the housing market. Exploiting heterogeneity in UI generosity across US states and over time, we find that UI helps the unemployed avoid mortgage default. We estimate that UI expansions during the Great Recession prevented more than 1.3 million foreclosures and insulated home values from labor market shocks. The results suggest that policies that make mortgages more affordable can reduce foreclosures even when borrowers are severe...
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作者：Casaburi, Lorenzo; Willis, Jack
作者单位：University of Zurich; Columbia University
摘要：The gains from insurance arise from the transfer of income across states. Yet, by requiring that the premium be paid up front, standard insurance products also transfer income across time. We show that this intertemporal transfer can help explain low insurance demand, especially among the poor, and in a randomized control trial in Kenya we test a crop insurance product which removes it. The product is interlinked with a contract farming scheme: as with other inputs, the buyer of the crop offer...
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作者：Fredriksson, Peter; Hensvik, Lena; Skans, Oskar Nordstrom
作者单位：Uppsala University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Uppsala University
摘要：We examine the impact of mismatch on entry wages, separations, and wage growth using unique data on worker talents. We show that workers are sorted on comparative advantage across jobs within occupations. The starting wages of inexperienced workers are unrelated to mismatch. For experienced workers, on the other hand, mismatch is negatively priced into their starting wages. Separations and wage growth are more strongly related to mismatch among inexperienced workers than among experienced work...
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作者：Bianchi, Javier; Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Western University (University of Western Ontario); International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study the optimal accumulation of international reserves in a quantitative model of sovereign default with long-term debt and a risk-free asset. Keeping higher levels of reserves provides a hedge against rollover risk, but this is costly because using reserves to pay down debt allows the government to reduce sovereign spreads. Our model, parameterized to mimic salient features of a typical emerging economy, can account for significant holdings of international reserves, and the larger accum...
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作者：Doraszelski, Ulrich; Lewis, Gregory; Pakes, Ariel
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Microsoft; Harvard University
摘要：We document the evolution of the new market for frequency response within the UK electricity system over a six-year period. Firms competed in price while facing considerable initial uncertainty about demand and rival behavior. We show that prices stabilized over time, converging to a rest point that is consistent with equilibrium play. We draw on models of fictitious play and adaptive learning to analyze how this convergence occurs and show that these models predict behavior better than an equ...
