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作者：Shapiro, Joseph S.; Walker, Reed
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from US manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest...
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作者：Carrell, Scott E.; Hoekstra, Mark; Kuka, Elira
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Southern Methodist University
摘要：A large and growing literature has documented the importance of peer effects in education. However, there is relatively little evidence on the long-run educational and labor market consequences of childhood peers. We examine this question by linking administrative data on elementary school students to subsequent test scores, college attendance and completion, and earnings. To distinguish the effect of peers from confounding factors, we exploit the population variation in the proportion of chil...
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作者：Neggers, Yusuf
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：This paper investigates the effects of polling station administrator diversity on elections in India, using a natural experiment: the random assignment of government officials to teams managing stations on election day, together with surveys conducted with voters and election officers. I demonstrate that changes in the religious and caste composition of officer teams impact voting at the polling station level, causing shifts in coalition vote shares large enough to influence election outcomes....
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作者：Dobbie, Will; Cioldin, Jacob; Yang, Crystal S.
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Harvard University
摘要：Over 20 percent of prison and jail inmates in the United States are currently awaiting trial, but little is known about the impact of pretrial detention on defendants. This paper uses the detention tendencies of quasi-randomly assigned bail judges to estimate the causal effects of retrial detention on subsequent defendant outcomes. Using data from administrative court and tax records, we find that pretrial detention significantly increases the probability of conviction, primarily through an in...
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作者：Jensen, Robert; Miller, Nolan H.
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：In many developing countries, the average firm is small, does not grow, and has low productivity. Lack of market integration and limited information on non-local products often leave consumers unaware of the prices and quality of non-local firms. They therefore mostly buy locally, limiting firms' potential market size (and competition). We explore this hypothesis using a natural experiment in the Kerala boat-building industry. As consumers learn more about non-local builders, high-quality buil...
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作者：Eliason, Paul J.; Grieco, Paul L. E.; McDevitt, Ryan C.; Roberts, James W.
作者单位：Brigham Young University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Duke University
摘要：Medicare's prospective payment system for long-term acute-care hospitals (LTCHs) provides modest reimbursements at the beginning of a patient's stay before jumping discontinuously to a large lump-sum payment after a prespecified number of days. We show that LTCHs respond to the financial incentives of this system by disproportionately discharging patients after they cross the large-payment threshold. We find this occurs more often at for-profit facilities, facilities acquired by leading LTCH c...
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作者：Gavazza, Alessandro; Mongey, Simon; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; Princeton University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop an. equilibrium model of firm dynamics with random search in the labor market where hiring firms exert recruiting effort by spending resources to fill vacancies faster. Consistent with microevidence, fast-growing firms invest more in recruiting activities and achieve higher job-filling rates. These hiring decisions of firms aggregate into an index of economy-wide recruiting intensity. We study how aggregate shocks transmit to recruiting intensity, and whether this channel can accoun...
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作者：Aizawa, Naoki; Kim, You Suk
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper studies the impact of advertising as a channel for risk selection in Medicare Advantage. We provide evidence that insurer advertising is responsive to the gains from risk selection. Then we develop and estimate an equilibrium model of Medicare Advantage with advertising, allowing rich individual heterogeneity. Our estimates show that advertising is effective in attracting healthy individuals who are newly eligible for Medicare, contributing to advantageous selection into Medicare Ad...
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作者：Ray, Debraj; Robson, Arthur
作者单位：New York University; University of Warwick; Simon Fraser University
摘要：Alphabetical name order is the norm for joint publications in. economics. However, alphabetical order confers greater benefits on the first author. In a two-author model, we introduce and study certified random order: the uniform randomization of names made universally known by a commonly understood symbol. Certified random order (i) distributes the gain from first authorship evenly over the alphabet; (ii) allows either author to signal when contributions are extremely unequal; (iii) will inva...
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作者：Angeletos, George-Marios; Lian, Chen
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How does the economy respond to news about future policies or future fundamentals? Standard practice assumes that agents have common knowledge of such news and face no uncertainty about how others will respond. Relaxing this assumption attenuates the general equilibrium effects of news and rationalizes a form of myopia at the aggregate level. We establish these insights within a class of games which nests, but is not limited to, the New Keynesian model. Our results help resolve the forward-gui...
