-
作者：Blanchard, Olivier
作者单位：Peterson Institute for International Economics; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：This lecture focuses on the costs of public debt when rates are low. I develop four main arguments. First, I show that the current us situation, in which safe interest rates are expected to remain below growth rates for a long time, is more the historical norm than the exception. If the figure is like the past, this implies that debt rollovers, that is the issuance of debt without a later increase in taxes, may well be feasible. Put bluntly, public debt may have no fiscal cost. Second, even in...
-
作者：Giroud, Xavier; Mueller, Holger M.
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); New York University; European Corporate Governance Institute
摘要：Using confidential establishment-level data from the US Census Bureau's Longitudinal Business Database, this paper documents how local shocks propagate across US regions through firms' internal networks of establishments. Consistent with a model of optimal within-firm resource allocation, we find that establishment-level employment is sensitive to shocks in distant regions in which the establishment's parent firm is operating, and that the elasticity with respect to such shocks increases with ...
-
作者：Piketty, Thomas; Yang, Li; Zucman, Gabriel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We combine national accounts, surveys, and new tax data to study the accumulation and distribution of income and wealth in China from 1978 to 2015. The national wealth-income ratio increased from 350 percent in 1978 to 700 percent in 2015, while the share of public property in national wealth declined from 70 percent to 30 percent. We provide sharp upward revision of official inequality estimates. The top 10 percent income share rose from 27 percent to 41 percent between 1978 and 2015; the bot...
-
作者：Tombe, Trevor; Zhu, Xiaodong
作者单位：University of Calgary; University of Toronto; Tsinghua University
摘要：We study how goods- and labor-market frictions affect aggregate labor productivity in China. Combining unique data with a general equilibrium model of internal and international trade, and migration across regions and sectors, we quantify the magnitude and consequences of trade and migration costs. The costs were high in 2000, but declined afterward. The decline accounts for 36 percent of the aggregate labor productivity growth between 2000 and 2005. Reductions in internal trade and migration ...
-
作者：Kremens, Lukas; Martin, Ian
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We present a new identity that relates expected exchange rate appreciation to a risk-neutral covariance term, and use it to motivate a currency forecasting variable based on the prices of quanto index contracts. We show via panel regressions that the quanto forecast variable is an economically and statistically significant predictor of currency appreciation and of excess returns on currency trades. Out of sample, the quanto variable outperforms predictions based on uncovered interest parity, o...
-
作者：Liu, Qingmin; Mierendorff, Konrad; Shi, Xianwen; Zhong, Weijie
作者单位：Columbia University; University of London; University College London; University of Toronto
摘要：We study the role of limited commitment in a standard auction environment. In each period, the seller can commit to an auction with a reserve price but not to future reserve prices. We characterize the set of equilibrium profits attainable for the seller as the period length vanishes. An immediate sale by efficient auction is optimal when there are at least three buyers. For many natural distributions two buyers is enough. Otherwise, we give conditions under which the maximal profit is attaine...
-
作者：Garcia-Schmidt, Mariana; Woodford, Michael
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; Columbia University
摘要：We argue that an influential neo-Fisherian analysis of the effects of low interest rates depends on using perfect foresight equilibrium analysis under circumstances where it is not plausible for people to hold expectations of that kind. We propose an explicit cognitive process by which agents may form their expectations of future endogenous variables. Perfect foresight is justified by our analysis as a reasonable approximation in some cases, but in the case of a commitment to maintain a low no...
-
作者：Saez, Emmanuel; Schoefer, Benjamin; Seim, David
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Stockholm University
摘要：This paper uses administrative data to analyze a large employer-borne payroll tax rate cut for young workers in Sweden. We find no effect on-net-of-tax wages of young treated workers relative to slightly older untreated workers, and a 2-3 percentage point increase in youth employment. Firms employing many young workers receive a larger tax windfall and expand right after the reform: employment, capital, sales, and profits increase. These effects appear stronger in credit-constrained firms. You...
-
作者：Giorcelli, Michela
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the long-run causal effects of management on firm performance. Under the United States Technical Assistance and Productivity Program (1952-1958), the United States organized management training trips for Italian managers to US firms and granted technologically advanced machines to Italian companies. I exploit an unexpected budget cut that reduced the number of participating firms and find that, compared to businesses excluded by the budget cut: performance of Italian firms ...
-
作者：Fudenberg, Drew; Liang, Annie
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best performing model that improves predictive accuracy. We then observe play in a collection of new algorithmically generated games, and learn that we can obtain even better predictions with a hybrid model that u...
