The Long-Run Effects of Government Spending†

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Antolin-Diaz, Juan; Surico, Paolo
• 署名单位: University of London; London Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231278
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 2376-2413
• 关键词: FINANCIAL CRISIS; time-series; monetary; TECHNOLOGY; inference; TRENDS; shocks; identification; multipliers; purchases

摘要

Military spending has large and persistent effects on output because it shifts the composition of public spending toward R&D. This boosts innovation and private investment in the medium term and increases productivity and GDP at longer horizons. Public R&D expenditure stimulates economic activities beyond the business cycle even when it is not associated with war spending. In contrast, the effects of public investment are shorter-lived, while public consumption has a modest impact at most horizons. We reach these conclusions using BVAR with long lags and 125 years of US data, including newly reconstructed series of government spending by main categories since 1890. (JEL E21, E22, E23, E62, H50, H56, O30)