Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises†

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Haddad, Valentin; Moreira, Alan; Muir, Tyler
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Rochester
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20230486
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 295-329
• 关键词: PURCHASES; prices; MARKET; qe

摘要

At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states-policy puts-explain a large fraction of the announcements' impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened relative to the median scenario. Perceived promises of additional support in bad states alter asset prices, risk, and the response to future announcements.