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作者：Nielsen, Kirby; Rehbeck, John
作者单位：California Institute of Technology; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Using a laboratory experiment, we identify whether decision-makers consider it a mistake to violate canonical choice axioms. To do this, we incentivize subjects to report axioms they want their decisions to satisfy. Then, subjects make lottery choices which might conflict with their axiom preferences. In instances of conflict, we give subjects the opportunity to re-evaluate their decisions. We find that many individuals want to follow canonical axioms and revise their choices to be consistent ...
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作者：Danz, David; Vesterlund, Lise; Wilson, Alistair J.
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Subjective beliefs are crucial for economic inference, yet behavior can challenge the elicitation. We propose that belief elicitation should be incentive compatible not only theoretically but also in a de facto behavioral sense. To demonstrate, we show that the binarized scoring rule, a state-of-the-art elicitation, violates two weak conditions for behavioral incentive compatibility: (i) within the elicitation, information on the incentives increases deviations from truthful reporting; and (ii...
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作者：Jones, Maria; Kondylis, Florence; Loeser, John; Magruder, Jeremy
作者单位：The World Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Factor market failures can limit adoption of profitable technologies. We leverage a plot-level spatial regression discontinuity design in the context of irrigation use by farmers provided free access to water. Using irrigation boosts profits by 43-62 percent. Yet, farmers only irrigate 30 percent of plots because of labor costs. We demonstrate inefficient irrigation use, by showing farmers irrigating one plot reduce their irrigation use on other plots. This inefficiency is largest for smaller ...
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作者：Mensch, Jeffrey
作者单位：Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：Information plays a crucial role in mechanism design problems. A potential complication is that buyers may be inattentive, and so their information may endogenously and flexibly depend on the offered mechanism. I show that it is without loss of generality to consider contour mechanisms, which comprise triplets of allocation proba-bilities, prices, and beliefs, and are uniquely determined by a single such point. The mechanism design problem then reduces to Bayesian persuasion along the optimal ...
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作者：Caldara, Dario; Iacoviello, Matteo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We present a news-based measure of adverse geopolitical events and associated risks. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the two world wars, at the beginning of the Korean War, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and after 9/11. Higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment and employment and is associated with higher disaster probability and larger downside risks. The adverse consequences of the GPR index are driven by both the threat and the realization of adverse geopolitic...
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作者：Derenoncourt, Ellora
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper shows that racial composition shocks during the Great Migration (1940-1970) reduced the gains from growing up in the northern United States for Black families and can explain 27 percent of the region's racial upward mobility gap today. I identify northern Black share increases by interacting pre -1940 Black migrants' location choices with predicted southern county out-migration. Locational changes, not negative selection of families, explain lower upward mobility, with persistent se...
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作者：Farronato, Chiara; Fradkin, Andrey
作者单位：Harvard University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University
摘要：We study the welfare effects of enabling peer supply through Airbnb in the accommodation industry. We present a model of competition between flexible and dedicated sellers (peer hosts and hotels) who provide differentiated products. We estimate this model using data from major US cities and quantify the welfare effects of Airbnb on travelers, hosts, and hotels. The welfare gains are concentrated in specific locations (New York) and times (New Year's Eve) when hotel capacity is constrained. Thi...
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作者：Imbert, Clement; Seror, Marlon; Zhang, Yifan; Zylberberg, Yanos
作者单位：University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Chinese University of Hong Kong; University of Bristol; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：How does rural-urban migration shape urban production in devel-oping countries? We use longitudinal data on Chinese manufactur-ing firms between 2000 and 2006, and exploit exogenous variation in rural-urban migration induced by agricultural income shocks for identification. We find that, when immigration increases, man-ufacturing production becomes more labor intensive and produc-tivity declines. We investigate the reorganization of production using patent applications and product information....
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作者：Armstrong, Mark; Zhou, Jidong
作者单位：University of Oxford; Yale University
摘要：This paper studies competition between firms when consumers observe a private signal of their preferences over products. Within the class of signal structures that induce pure-strategy pricing equilibria, we derive signal structures that are optimal for firms and those that are optimal for consumers. The firm-optimal policy amplifies underlying product differentiation, thereby relaxing competition, while ensuring consumers purchase their preferred product, thereby maximizing total welfare. The...
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作者：Boehm, Christoph E.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We provide evidence that industries' supply curves are convex. To guide our empirical analysis, we develop a model in which capac-ity constraints at the firm level generate supply curves that are convex in logs at the industry level. The industry's capacity utili-zation rate is a sufficient statistic for the supply elasticity. Using data on capacity utilization and three different instruments, we estimate the supply curve and find robust evidence for an econom-ically sizable degree of convexit...
