彼得森国际经济研究所

President Donald Trump promised during his recent campaign to impose steep tariffs on other countries, assuring voters that the cost would be paid by foreign sellers, not Americans. In September 2024, for example, Trump told supporters:“We’re going to be a tariff nation. It’s not going to be a cost to you. It’s going to be a cost to another country…. I heard Kamala the other day, Comrade Kamala. She said, 'Oh, if you do that, he’s r

Since February 2025, the United States has undertaken a rolling process of resetting tariffs, driving them up to the highest levels since the 1930s. In this blog, we project the impacts of the US tariffs in effect as of September 11, 2025. We find that, if left in place over the coming decade, these tariffs would result in less US economic output, higher US prices, and lower American wages than if they had not been adopted.US employment, measured