The timing of shocks matters in optimal monetary policy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Shirota, Toyoichiro
• 署名单位: Aoyama Gakuin University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2026.103896
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: small open-economy; staggered wage; price; inflation; CONTRACTS; cycles; rules

摘要

This study explores optimal monetary policy in an economy with seasonal wage staggering. The findings reveal that the slope of the Phillips curve and the weights in the welfare loss function systematically differ by quarter. Consequently, optimal policy responses vary depending on the timing of shocks within a calendar year. However, implementing history-dependent policy rules can effectively mitigate much of the welfare deterioration that would otherwise occur when policymakers fail to adopt these quarter-specific optimal policy responses.