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作者：Breinlich, Holger; Leromain, Elsa; Novy, Dennis; Sampson, Thomas
作者单位：University of Surrey; University of Antwerp; Universite Catholique Louvain; University of Warwick; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：In trade models with scale economies, import liberalization reduces exports within industries by shrinking real market potential. We find this export destruction mechanism reduced US export growth following the permanent normalization of trade relations with China (PNTR). There was also an offsetting boost to exports from lower input costs. We use our estimates to calibrate a quantitative model and show that scale economies are economically important for trade policy analysis. Although PNTR in...
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作者：Rachel, Lukasz
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper examines the behavior of individuals susceptible to a deadly disease in a tractable equilibrium setting. We analytically characterize individually optimal mitigation behavior and the resulting equilibrium trajectory. Analysis is facilitated by a phase diagram. A key insight is that individually optimal behavior of those susceptible to the disease results in excessive caution. This behavior flattens the epidemic curve and prolongs the epidemic. In contrast, socially optimal behavior ...
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作者：Kapfhammer, Felix
作者单位：BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：This paper studies the sectoral and macroeconomic consequences of carbon taxes in four Nordic countries using a novel monthly measure of effective carbon tax rates. The suggested measure accounts for the time-varying emission coverage of taxes that are both explicitly and implicitly levied on greenhouse gas-emitting goods, thereby solving several issues of existing carbon tax measures currently used by the literature. Employing the new measure in a local projection setting, I find that carbon ...
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作者：Smulders, Sjak; Zhou, Sophie
作者单位：Tilburg University; University of Reading
摘要：Technological lock-in has been a standard explanation for the slow take-off of clean innovation, but is hard to reconcile with forward-looking investors who anticipate the eventual switch to clean technologies. We provide an alternative explanation: strategic investment complementarities shape innovation and self-fulfilling prophecies can lead to delayed low-carbon transition. We analyze a standard directed technical change model with clean and dirty inputs. Under good input substitutability, ...
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作者：Alon, Titan; Capelle, Damien; Matsuda, Kazushige
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Keio University
摘要：This paper develops a framework in which university research depends endogenously on competition for tuition and talented students in the market for higher education. When students are highly stratified across colleges, or when tuition rises sharply with school rank, universities spend on R&D even if the direct contribution of research to teaching is small. The model is consistent with causal evidence and matches new features of the microdata. It explains why universities internally fund resea...
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作者：Doh, Taeyoung; Song, Dongho; Yang, Shu-Kuei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We propose a text-based measure of monetary policy stance that models FOMC statements as convex combinations of dovish and hawkish alternatives, providing a tractable representation of the Committee's position along the policy spectrum. Leveraging staff-drafted alternative statements, we fine-tune a pretrained language model to capture both quantitative precision and semantic tone. Stance is defined as the product of tone and novelty, and decomposed into expected and surprise components using ...
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作者：Kaiser, Rosemary
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Employment protections often create two-tiered labor markets with substantial differences in job security. I estimate the effects of removing these protections using a quantitative life cycle model, where younger workers are more likely to select into precarious jobs. Workers accumulate human capital when employed and face the possibility of human capital losses in unemployment. Because workers with greater job security experience fewer unemployment spells, they tend to accumulate more human c...
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作者：Jia, Ruixue; Ma, Xiao; Xie, Victoria wenxin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; Santa Clara University
摘要：Using county-level and zip-code-level data from the United States during the period 1998-2018, we document: (i) Increased flood risk has a large negative impact on firm entry, employment, and output in the long run; (ii) Flood events reduce output in the short run while impact on firm entry and employment is limited. We then develop a quantitative spatial model to characterize how flood risk shapes firms' location choices and employment. We find flood risk reduced US aggregate output by 0.53 p...
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作者：Acalin, Julien; Ball, Laurence
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the effects of primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951 on the US public debt/GDP ratio. We find that with the primary budget balance and without distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg, debt/GDP would have declined only from 106 percent in 1946 to 74 percent in 1974, not to 23 percent as in actual history. Our findings imply that, over the last 76 years, onl...
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作者：Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Revoltella, Debora; Svejnar, Jan; Weiss, Christoph t.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute Labor Economics; Columbia University; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
摘要：Using a new survey, we document high dispersion of marginal revenue products across firms in the European Union. To interpret this dispersion, we develop a highly portable framework to quantify gains from better allocation of resources. We demonstrate that apart from direct measures of distortions, firm characteristics, such as demographics, quality of inputs, utilization of resources, and dynamic adjustment of inputs, are predictors of the marginal revenue products of capital and labor. We em...
