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作者：Hubmer, Joachim; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The US labor share has declined, especially in manufacturing and retail. Yet the labor share of a typical firm in these sectors has risen. We introduce a model where firms incur fixed costs to automate tasks. A decline in the price of capital goods used for automation reproduces the observed patterns: large firms automate tasks, reducing the aggregate labor share, while the median firm continues to operate a labor-intensive technology. When calibrating the automation fixed costs to match the o...
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作者：Bloom, Nicholas; Iacovone, Leonardo; Pereira-Lopez, Mariana; Van Reenen, John
作者单位：Stanford University; The World Bank; Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de Mexico; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Using comprehensive administrative management surveys from Mexico and the United States, we document large management gaps between the two countries, driven by both lower average management quality among Mexican firms and greater misallocation. Compared with the United States, Mexico displays a weaker link between firm size and management quality, especially in the distorted service sector. The size-management gradient is weakest in smaller markets-services in low-population-density regions an...
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作者：Bundick, Brent; Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We analyze the effects of a monetary policy that stabilizes shortfalls rather than deviations of employment from its maximum level. A shortfalls-stabilization rule leads to expectations of more accommodative policy in expansions, raising average inflation and nominal rates. These effects are significantly amplified by incorporating history dependence in labor markets, a feature in labor-search frameworks. In a calibrated model of labor-search frictions and nominal rigidities, the adoption of a...
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作者：Boerner, Lars; Severgnini, Battista
作者单位：Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; University of London; King's College London; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH); Copenhagen Business School
摘要：This paper investigates the adoption, diffusion, and long-run impact of the public mechanical clock, one of the most important high-technology machines in history, on European economic growth and development. We avoid endogeneity by considering the relationship between the adoption of such clocks and an instrumental variable based on the appearance of repeated solar eclipses. Solar eclipses triggered a medieval cultural movement in which people sought to understand the motion of stars and cloc...
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作者：Acalin, Julien; Ball, Laurence
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the effects of primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951 on the US public debt/GDP ratio. We find that with the primary budget balance and without distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg, debt/GDP would have declined only from 106 percent in 1946 to 74 percent in 1974, not to 23 percent as in actual history. Our findings imply that, over the last 76 years, onl...
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作者：Sastry, Karthik A.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This paper studies why central banks and markets hold different beliefs. I introduce a model that formalizes three mechanisms for disagreement: asymmetric information about fundamentals, different perceptions of the policy rule, and different confidence in public signals. I show how to separately identify these mechanisms using their predictions for beliefs about multiple variables. In US data, negative macroeconomic news predicts market overestimation of interest rates and employment relative...
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作者：Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Revoltella, Debora; Svejnar, Jan; Weiss, Christoph t.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute Labor Economics; Columbia University; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
摘要：Using a new survey, we document high dispersion of marginal revenue products across firms in the European Union. To interpret this dispersion, we develop a highly portable framework to quantify gains from better allocation of resources. We demonstrate that apart from direct measures of distortions, firm characteristics, such as demographics, quality of inputs, utilization of resources, and dynamic adjustment of inputs, are predictors of the marginal revenue products of capital and labor. We em...
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作者：Shu, Martin
作者单位：The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
摘要：Labor productivity growth in the service sector may be mismeasured if workers with heterogeneous skills self-select into sectors. I document with US data that workers reallocated from manufacturing earn more than incumbent workers in professional services but less than incumbent workers in education, health, and public services. A generalized quantitative Roy model predicts a selection effect on labor productivity growth in professional services that is 10 percentage points higher than what a ...
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作者：Mongey, Simon; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We merge QCEW and JOLTS microdata to study firm recruiting intensity across establishments and over time. We show that large heterogeneity in vacancy-filling rates is fully accounted for by differences in gross hiring rates. We develop a theory consistent with these facts and, guided by it, construct a firm-based measure of Aggregate Recruiting Intensity (ARI). ARI is strongly procyclical, driven mainly by declines in recruiting efforts in slack labor markets. We also propose a simple proxy AR...
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作者：Bekaert, Geert; Engstrom, Eric; Ermolov, Andrey
作者单位：Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Fordham University
摘要：We estimate the time-varying distribution of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) shocks. We distinguish between traditional Gaussian uncertainty and bad uncertainty, associated with negative skewness. The Great Moderation is driven by a reduction in the volatility of AS shocks and the Gaussian component of AD shocks. The increased role of bad demand uncertainty implies that the conditional skewness of GDP growth and inflation has decreased over time. The correlation between AS/AD s...
