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作者：Chen, Zefeng; Jiang, Zhengyang; Lustig, Hanno; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Xiaolan, Mindy Z.
作者单位：Peking University; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Stanford University; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：We study three centuries of fiscal history. Dominant safe asset suppliers issue more debt than future primary surpluses can justify, even after accounting for seigniorage revenue from convenience yields. This pattern holds for the Dutch Republic (seventeenth to eighteenth centuries), the United Kingdom (eighteenth to nineteenth centuries), and the United States (twentieth to twenty-first centuries). When Dutch and UK fiscal fundamentals deteriorated, they lost their dominant position as the sa...
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Fernandez-Val, Ivan; Luo, Siyi
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
摘要：We develop a distribution regression model under endogenous sample selection. This model is a semiparametric generalization of the Heckman selection model, which accommodates much richer patterns of heterogeneity in the effect of covariates and selection process and allows for departures from Gaussian errors while maintaining the same level of tractability. The model applies to continuous, discrete, and mixed outcomes. We provide identification, estimation, and inference methods and apply them...
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作者：Ricks, Michael David; Kay, Owen
作者单位：University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：Pigouvian subsidies are efficient, but output subsidies with uncertain or limited durations are not Pigouvian. We show that optimal time-limited policies must also subsidize investment to correct externalities generated after the output subsidy ends. Furthermore, an output subsidy's optimal duration is characterized by the change in production when it ends. In the wind energy industry, we find that power generation decreases by 5%-10% after the end of facilities' 10-year eligibility for the Re...
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作者：Ide, Enrique; Talamas, Eduard
作者单位：University of Navarra; IESE Business School
摘要：Artificial intelligence (AI) can transform the knowledge economy by automating noncodifiable work. To analyze this transformation, we incorporate AI into an economy where humans form hierarchical organizations: less knowledgeable individuals become workers doing routine work, while others become solvers handling exceptions. We model AI as a technology that converts computational resources into AI agents that operate autonomously (as coworkers and solvers/copilots) or nonautonomously (solely as...
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作者：Ayres, Joao; Navarro, Gaston; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Teles, Pedro
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; Banco de Portugal; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We assess the quantitative relevance of expectations-driven sovereign debt crises, focusing on the southern European crisis of the early 2010s and the Argentine default of 2001. The source of multiplicity is the one proposed by Calvo. Crucial for multiplicity is an output process characterized by long periods of either high growth or stagnation, which we estimate using data for these countries. Our analysis suggests that expectations-driven debt crises are quantitatively relevant but state dep...
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作者：Pellegrina, Heitor S.; Sotelo, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study how migration shapes aggregate and regional comparative advantage, exploiting a large migration of farmers to Brazil's West between 1950 and 2010. Migration allowed workers to sort according to their own comparative advantage, reallocating knowledge and raw labor to high-productivity regions. In a quantitative model, we find that migration cost reductions reshaped Brazil's comparative advantage and contributed to its rise as a leading commodity exporter-accounting for 25% of the obser...
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作者：Mueller, Andreas I.; Spinnewijn, Johannes
作者单位：University of Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple-spell outcomes, respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects can explain most of the dec...
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作者：Aparisi de Lannoy, Leo; Bhandari, Anmol; Evans, David; Golosov, Mikhail; Sargent, Thomas
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Oregon; New York University
摘要：We study optimal public portfolios in a class of macro-finance models that includes widely used specifications of households' risk and liquidity preferences, market structures for financial assets, and trading frictions. An optimal portfolio hedges fluctuations in interest rates, primary surpluses, and income inequalities. We express an optimal portfolio in terms of statistics that are functions only of macro and financial market data. An application to US data shows that hedging interest rate...
