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作者：Jia, Yanwei; Keppo, Jussi; Satopaa, Ville
作者单位：Columbia University; National University of Singapore; INSEAD Business School
摘要：Decision makers often ask experts to forecast a future state. Experts, however, can be biased. In the economics and psychology literature, one extensively studied behavioral bias is called herding. Under strong levels of herding, disclosure of public information may lower forecasting accuracy. This result, however, is derived only for point forecasts. In this paper, we consider experts??? probabilistic forecasts under herding, find a closedform expression for the first two moments of a unique ...
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作者：Lewis, Joshua; Feiler, Daniel; Adner, Ron
作者单位：New York University; Dartmouth College
摘要：Many important managerial outcomes hinge on the co-occurrence of multiple uncertain events, a situation termed conjunctive risk. Whereas past literature has addressed the psychology of choosing to enter situations with conjunctive risk, this article elucidates a novel way in which the psychology of managing conjunctive risk is importantly distinct. We examine a case in which there are two independent events, one is currently less likely than the other, both are required for overall success, an...
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作者：Heitz, Amanda; Wang, Youan; Wang, Zigan
作者单位：Tulane University; University of Hong Kong
摘要：We examine whether the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) uniformly enforces the Clean Air Act for politically connected and unconnected firms using a close election setting. We find no difference in regulated pollutant emissions or EPA investigations between the two groups, although connected firms experience less regulatory enforcement and lower penalties. These results are more pronounced for firms connected to politicians capable of influencing regulatory bureaucrats and for connected f...
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作者：Cong, Lin William; Li, Xi; Tang, Ke; Yang, Yang
作者单位：Cornell University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Reading; Tsinghua University; University of Bristol
摘要：We present the first systematic approach to detect fake transactions on cryptocurrency exchanges by exploiting robust statistical and behavioral regularities associated with authentic trading. Our sample consists of 29 centralized exchanges, among which the regulated ones feature transaction patterns consistently observed in financial markets and nature. In contrast, unregulated exchanges display abnormal first significant digit distributions, size rounding, and transaction tail distributions,...
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作者：Hsu, Vernon; Wu, Jing
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong
摘要：Classic inventory theory suggests that inventory plays a vital role in matching demand and supply. This paper provides both country- and firm-level evidence that inventory can be used as a financial instrument to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities in financial markets with limited capital mobility. Using data from China customs' metal imports and firm-level inventory from metal processing industries, we show that firms can utilize the inventory of an imported product to carry lower cost...
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作者：Mayordomo, Sergio; Rachedi, Omar; Morenoa, Maria Rodriguez
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Universitat Ramon Llull; Escuela Superior de Administracion y Direccion de Empresas (ESADE)
摘要：The overstatement of asset collateral values reduces bank capital requirements. We identify this novel form of regulatory arbitrage by studying housing overappraisals, the difference between housing collateral values computed by appraisers and actual transaction prices. We leverage granular loan-level data from Spain and a kink in the scheme of residential mortgage risk weights to show that tighter regulatory requirements cause larger overappraisals. This bias depends on the relationship betwe...
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作者：Zhang, Wei; Jacquillat, Alexandre; Wang, Kai; Wang, Shuaian
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：In several transportation systems, vehicles can choose where to meet customers rather than stopping in fixed locations. This added flexibility, however, requires coordination between vehicles and customers that adds complexity to routing operations. This paper develops scalable algorithms to optimize these operations. First, we solve the one-stop subproblem in the l(1) space and the l(2) space by leveraging the geometric structure of operations. Second, to solve a multistop problem, we embed t...
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作者：Bar, Ron N.; Haviv, Avery
作者单位：University of Rochester
摘要：Brand valuation methods traditionally focus on the value a brand generates via its ability to enhance demand and, accordingly, profitability. However, this paper explores how a brand can generate value for a firm through the ability to deter entry of new competitors. In this respect, we distinguish between a brand's direct effect on demand and its strategic effect on the behavior of rival firms. We investigate this within the context of the U.S. stacked chips category using a dynamic model tha...
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作者：Zhang, Yiwei; Hemmeter, Jeffrey; Kessler, Judd B.; Metcalfe, Robert D.; Weathersf, Robert
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California
摘要：We study a large-scale (n = 50,000) natural field experiment implemented by the U.S. Social Security Administration aimed at increasing the timely and accurate self-reporting of wages by Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients. A letter reminding SSI recipients of their wage reporting responsibilities significantly increased both the likelihood of reporting any earnings and the total earnings reported. However, the specific letter content-providing social information or highlighting the ...
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作者：Bradshaw, Mark; Drake, Michael; Pacelli, Joseph; Twedt, Brady
作者单位：Boston College; Harvard University; University of Oregon
摘要：We examine how brokerage firm initial public offerings (IPOs) influence the research quality of sell-side analysts employed by the brokerage. Our main results focus on earnings forecast bias and absolute forecast errors as proxies for research quality. Using a staggered difference-in-differences analysis, we document significant decreases in forecast bias and absolute forecast error during the two-year period centered on the analysts' brokerage house IPO. In additional analyses, we explore sev...
