4期

最新文章

• International business cycles: World, region, and country-specific factors AI翻译
  作者：Kose, MA; Otrok, C; Whiteman, CH
  作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Virginia; University of Iowa
  摘要：The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business-cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common components in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) in a 60-country sample covering seven regions of the world. The results indicate that a common world factor is an important source of volatility for aggregates in most countries, providing evidence for a world business cycle. W...
• On the evolution of the firm size distribution: Facts and theory AI翻译
  作者：Cabral, LMB; Mata, J
  作者单位：New York University; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
  摘要：Using a comprehensive data set of Portuguese manufacturing firms, we show that the firm size distribution is significantly right-skewed, evolving over time toward a lognormal distribution. We also show that selection accounts for very little of this evolution. Instead, we propose a simple theory based on financing constraints. A calibrated version of our model does a good job at explaining the evolution of the firm size distribution.
• Upward bias in the estimated returns to education: Evidence from South Africa AI翻译
  作者：Hertz, T
  作者单位：American University
• To float or to fix: Evidence on the impact of exchange rate regimes on growth AI翻译
  作者：Levy-Yeyati, E; Sturzenegger, F
  摘要：We study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth for a sample of 183 countries over the post-Bretton Woods period, using a new de facto classification of regimes based on the actual behavior of the relevant macroeconomic variables. In contrast with previous studies, we find that, for developing countries, less flexible exchange rate regimes are associated with slower growth, as well as with greater output volatility. For industrial countries, regimes do not appear to...
• Are mergers beneficial to consumers? Evidence from the market for bank deposits AI翻译
  作者：Focarelli, D; Panetta, F
  作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
  摘要：The general conclusion of the empirical literature is that in-market consolidation generates adverse price changes, harming consumers. Previous studies, however, look only at the short-run pricing impact of consolidation, ignoring effects that take longer to materialize. Using a database that includes detailed information on the deposit rates of individual banks in local markets for different categories of depositors, we investigate the long-run price effects of mergers. We find strong evidenc...
• Is the threat of reemployment services more effective than the services themselves? Evidence from random assignment in the UI system AI翻译
  作者：Black, DA; Smith, JA; Berger, MC; Noel, BJ
  作者单位：Syracuse University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Kentucky
  摘要：We examine the effect of the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services system. This program profiles Unemployment Insurance (UI) claimants to determine their probability of benefit exhaustion and then provides mandatory employment and training services to claimants with high predicted probabilities. Using a unique experimental design, we estimate that the program reduces mean weeks of UI benefit receipt by about 2.2 weeks, reduces mean UI benefits received by about $143, and increases subsequ...
• Inflation persistence and relative contracting AI翻译
  作者：Holden, S; Driscoll, JC
  作者单位：University of Oslo; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors