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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yurii; Kumar, Saten
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We survey New Zealand firms and document novel facts about their macroeconomic beliefs. There is widespread dispersion in beliefs about past and future macroeconomic conditions, especially inflation. This dispersion in beliefs is consistent with firms' incentives to collect and process information. Using experimental methods, we find that firms update their beliefs in a Bayesian manner when presented with new information about the economy and that changes in their beliefs affect their decision...
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作者：Qin, Bei; Stromberg, David; Wu, Yanhui
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Stockholm University; University of Southern California
摘要：This paper examines whether and how market competition affected the political bias of government-owned newspapers in China from 1981 to 2011. We measure media bias based on coverage of government mouthpiece content (propaganda) relative to commercial content. We first find that a reform that forced newspaper exits (reduced competition) affected media bias by increasing product specialization, with some papers focusing on propaganda and others on commercial content. Second, lower-level governme...
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作者：Angeletos, George-Marios; Lian, Chen
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How does the economy respond to news about future policies or future fundamentals? Standard practice assumes that agents have common knowledge of such news and face no uncertainty about how others will respond. Relaxing this assumption attenuates the general equilibrium effects of news and rationalizes a form of myopia at the aggregate level. We establish these insights within a class of games which nests, but is not limited to, the New Keynesian model. Our results help resolve the forward-gui...
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作者：Miao, Jianjun; Wang, Pengfei
作者单位：Boston University; Central University of Finance & Economics; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We provide a theory of rational stock price bubbles in production economies with infinitely-lived agents. Finns meet stochastic investment opportunities and face endogenous credit constraints. They are not fully committed to repaying debt. Credit constraints are derived from incentive constraints in optimal contracts which ensure default never occurs in equilibrium. Stock price bubbles can emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism and cannot be ruled out by transversality conditions. T...
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作者：Lanteri, Andrea
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：This paper studies the business-cycle dynamics of secondary markets for physical capital and their effects on the macmeconomy. In the data, both capital reallocation and the price of used capital are procyclical. To rationalize these facts, I propose a model with endogenous partial irreversibility, where used investment goods are imperfect substitutes for new ones because of firm-level capital specificity. Equilibrium dynamics in the market for used capital induce countercyclical dispersion of...
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作者：Beaudry, Paul; Green, David A.; Sand, Ben M.
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; York University - Canada
摘要：We propose and estimate a novel specification of labor demand which encompasses search frictions and the role of entrepreneurs in new firm creation. Using city-industry variation over four decades, we estimate the wage elasticity of employment demand to be close to -1 at the industry-city level and -0.3 at the city level. We argue that the difference between these estimates reflects the congestion externalities predicted by the search literature. Our estimates also indicate that entrepreneursh...
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作者：Eusepi, Stefano; Preston, Bruce
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Melbourne
摘要：This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High and moderate duration debt generates wealth effects on consumption demand that impairs the intertemporal substitution channel of monetary policy: aggressive monetary policy is required to anchor inflation expectations. Counterfactual experiments conducted i...
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作者：Antecol, Heather; Bedard, Kelly; Stearns, Jenna
作者单位：Claremont Colleges; Claremont Graduate University; Claremont McKenna College; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Many skilled professional occupations are characterized by an early period of intensive skill accumulation and career establishment. Examples include law firm associates, surgical residents, and untenured faculty at research-intensive universities. High female exit rates are sometimes blamed on the inability of new mothers to survive the sustained negative productivity shock associated with childbearing and early childrearing in these environments. Gender-neutral family policies have been adop...
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作者：Bianchi, Javier; Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Western University (University of Western Ontario); International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study the optimal accumulation of international reserves in a quantitative model of sovereign default with long-term debt and a risk-free asset. Keeping higher levels of reserves provides a hedge against rollover risk, but this is costly because using reserves to pay down debt allows the government to reduce sovereign spreads. Our model, parameterized to mimic salient features of a typical emerging economy, can account for significant holdings of international reserves, and the larger accum...
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作者：Lockwood, Lee M.
作者单位：University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Despite facing significant uncertainty about their lifespans and health care costs, most retirees do not buy annuities or long-term care insurance. In this paper, I find that retirees' saving and insurance choices are highly inconsistent with standard life-cycle models in which people care only about their own consumption but match well models in which bequests are luxury goods. Bequest motives tend to reduce the value of insurance by reducing the opportunity cost of precautionary saving. The ...
