-
作者：Mueller, Andreas; Storesletten, Kjetil; Zilibotti, Fabrizio
作者单位：University of Essex; University of Oslo; Yale University
摘要：We construct a dynamic theory of sovereign debt and structural reforms with limited enforcement and moral hazard. A sovereign country in recession wishes to smooth consumption. It can also undertake costly reforms to speed up recovery. The sovereign can renege on contracts by suffering a stochastic cost. The constrained optimal allocation (COA) prescribes imperfect insurance with non-monotonic dynamics for consumption and effort. The COA is decentralized by a competitive equilibrium with marke...
-
作者：Deryugina, Tatyana; Heutel, Garth; Miller, Nolan H.; Molitor, David; Reif, Julian
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：We estimate the causal effects of acute fine particulate matter exposure on mortality, health care use, and medical costs among the US elderly using Medicare data. We instrument for air pollution using changes in local wind direction and develop a new approach that uses machine learning to estimate the life-years lost due to pollution exposure. Finally, we characterize treatment effect heterogeneity using both life expectancy and generic machine learning inference. Both approaches find that mo...
-
作者：Couttenier, Mathieu; Petrencu, Veronica; Rohner, Dominic; Thoenig, Mathias
作者单位：Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Geneva; University of Lausanne
摘要：We study empirically how past exposure to conflict in origin countries makes migrants more violence-prone in their host country, focusing on asylum seekers in Switzerland. We exploit a novel and unique dataset on all crimes reported in Switzerland by the nationalities of perpetrators and of victims over 2009-2016. Our baseline result is that cohorts exposed to civil conflict/mass killing during childhood are 35 percent more prone to violent crime than the average cohort. This effect is particu...
-
作者：Bocola, Luigi; Dovis, Alessandro
作者单位：Stanford University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper investigates the role of self-fulfilling expectations in sovereign bond markets. We consider a model of sovereign borrowing featuring endogenous debt maturity, risk-averse lenders, and self-fulfilling crises a la Cole and Kehoe (2000). In this environment, interest rate spreads are driven by both fundamental and nonfundamental risk. These two sources of risk have contrasting implications for the maturity structure of debt chosen by the government. Therefore, they can be indirectly i...
-
作者：Hortacsu, Ali; Luco, Fernando; Puller, Steven L.; Zhu, Dongni
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：Oligopoly models of price competition predict that strategic firms exercise market power and generate inefficiencies. However, heterogeneity in firms' strategic ability also generates inefficiencies. We study the Texas electricity market where firms exhibit significant heterogeneity in how they deviate from Nash equilibrium bidding. These deviations, in turn, increase the cost of production. To explain this heterogeneity, we embed a cognitive hierarchy model into a structural model of bidding ...
-
作者：Alsan, Marcella; Garrick, Owen; Graziano, Grant
作者单位：Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We study the effect of physician workforce diversity on the demand for preventive care among African American men. In an experiment in Oakland, California, we randomize black men to black or non-black male medical doctors. We use a two-stage design, measuring decisions before (pre-consultation) and after (post-consultation) meeting their assigned doctor. Subjects select a similar number of preventives in the pre-consultation stage, but are much more likely to select every preventive service, p...
-
作者：Lustig, Hanno; Stathopoulos, Andreas; Verdelhan, Adrien
作者单位：Stanford University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Fixing the investment horizon, the returns to currency carry trades decrease as the maturity of the foreign bonds increases. Across developed countries, the local currency term premia, which increase with the maturity of the bonds, offset the currency risk premia. Similarly, in the time-series, the predictability of foreign bond returns in dollars declines with the bonds' maturities. Leading no-arbitrage models in international finance do not match the downward term structure of currency carry...
-
作者：Traiberman, Sharon
作者单位：New York University
摘要：I argue that the winners and losers from trade are decided primarily by occupation. In addition to fixed adjustment costs, workers build up specific human capital over time that is destroyed when they must change occupations. I show that ignoring human capital biases estimates of adjustment costs upward by a factor of 3. Estimating an occupational choice model of the Danish labor market, I show that 57 percent of the dispersion in worker outcomes is accounted for by occupations, and only 16 pe...
-
作者：Fudenberg, Drew; Liang, Annie
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best performing model that improves predictive accuracy. We then observe play in a collection of new algorithmically generated games, and learn that we can obtain even better predictions with a hybrid model that u...
