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作者：Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：We establish that creditor beliefs regarding future borrowing can be self-fulfilling, leading to multiple equilibria with markedly different debt accumulation patterns. We characterize such indeterminacy in the Eaton-Gersovitz sovereign debt model augmented with long maturity bonds. Two necessary conditions for the multiplicity are (i) the government is more impatient than foreign creditors, and (ii) there are deadweight losses from default. The multiplicity is dynamic and stems from the self-...
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作者：Ravid, Doron
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：A seller bargains with a rationally inattentive buyer (Sims 2003) over a good of random quality. After observing quality, the seller makes a take-it-or-leave-it offer. The buyer pays attention to the seller's product and offer at a cost proportional to expected entropy reduction. Because attention is free off-path, multiple equilibria emerge, many of which are efficient. A trembling-hand-like refinement (Selten 1975) rules out efficiency, delivering complete disagreement when attention is expe...
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作者：Jones, John Bailey; Pratap, Sangeeta
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY); City University of New York (CUNY) System
摘要：Using a rich panel of owner-operated New York dairy farms, we provide new evidence on entrepreneurial behavior. We formulate a dynamic model of farms facing uninsured risks and financial constraints. Fanners derive nonpecuniary benefits from operating their businesses. We estimate the model via simulated minimum distance, matching both production and financial data. We find that financial factors and nonpecuniary benefits are of first-order importance. Collateral constraints and liquidity rest...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Gennaioli, Nicola; Ma, Yueran; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Harvard University
摘要：We study the rationality of individual and consensus forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), who examine predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We find that individual forecasters typically overreact to news, while consensus forecasts under-react relative to full-information rational expectations. We reconcile these findings within a diagnostic expectations version of a dispersed information learning mode...
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作者：Lunsford, Kurt G.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：I show that the nature of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) forward guidance language shapes the private sector's responses to monetary policy statements. From February 2000 to June 2003, the FOMC only gave forward guidance about economic outlook risks, and a decrease in the expected federal funds rate path caused stock prices to fall, GDP growth forecasts to fall, and the unemployment rate to rise. From August 2003 to May 2006, the FOMC added forward guidance about policy inclinati...
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作者：Verner, Emil; Gyongyosi, Gyozo
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
摘要：We examine the consequences of a sudden increase in household debt burdens by exploiting variation in exposure to household foreign currency debt during Hungary's late-2008 currency crisis. The revaluation of debt burdens causes higher default rates and a collapse in spending. These responses lead to a worse local recession, driven by a decline in local demand, and negative spillover effects on nearby borrowers without foreign currency debt. The estimates translate into an output multiplier on...
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作者：Jones, Charles, I; Tonetti, Christopher
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Data is nonrival: a person's location history, medical records, and driving data can be used by many firms simultaneously. Nonrivalry leads to increasing returns. As a result, there may be social gains to data being used broadly across firms, even in the presence of privacy considerations. Fearing creative destruction, firms may choose to hoard their data, leading to the inefficient use of nonrival data. Giving data property rights to consumers can generate allocations that are close to optima...
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作者：Kojima, Fuhito; Sun, Ning; Yu, Ning Neil
作者单位：Stanford University; Nanjing Audit University; Nanjing Audit University; Stanford University
摘要：Studying job matching in a Kelso-Crawford framework, we consider arbitrary constraints imposed on sets of doctors that a hospital can hire. We characterize all constraints that preserve the substitutes condition (for all revenue fiaictions that satisfy the substitutes condition), a critical condition on hospitals' revenue functions for well-behaved competitive equilibria. A constraint preserves the substitutes condition if and only if it is a generalized interval constraint, which specifies th...
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作者：De Chaisemartin, Clement; D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris
摘要：Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate treatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the average treatment effects (ATE) in each group and period, with weights that may be negative. Due to the negative weights, the linear regression coefficient may for instance be negative while all the ATEs are positive. We propose another estimator that solves this issue. In the two applications we revisit, it is significantly different from the li...
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作者：Bach, Laurent; Calvet, Laurent E.; Sodini, Paolo
作者单位：ESSEC Business School; Universite Catholique de Lille; EDHEC Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：We investigate wealth returns on an administrative panel containing the disaggregated balance sheets of Swedish residents. The expected return on household net wealth is strongly persistent, determined primarily by systematic risk, and increasing in net worth, exceeding the risk-free rate by the size of the equity premium for households in the top 0.01 percent. Idiosyncratic risk is transitory but generates substantial long-term dispersion in returns in top brackets. Systematic and idiosyncrat...
