-
作者：Brodeur, Abel; Cook, Nikolai; Heyes, Anthony
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：The credibility revolution in economics has promoted causal identification using randomized control trials (RCT), difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV) and regression discontinuity design (RDD). Applying multiple approaches to over 21,000 hypothesis tests published in 25 leading economics journals, we find that the extent of p-hacking and publication bias varies greatly by method. IV (and to a lesser extent DID) are particularly problematic. We find no evidence that (i) ...
-
作者：Chen, Yi; Fan, Ziying; Gu, Xiaomin; Zhou, Li-An
作者单位：Jinan University; ShanghaiTech University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Shanghai University of International Business & Economics; Peking University
摘要：This paper estimates the effects on rural education of the send-down movement during the Cultural Revolution, when about 16 million urban youth were mandated to resettle in the countryside. Using a county-level dataset compiled from local gazetteers and population censuses, we show that greater exposure to the sent-down youths significantly increased rural children's educational achievement. This positive effect diminished after the urban youth left the countryside in the late 1970s but never ...
-
作者：Deryugina, Tatyana; Molitor, David
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We follow Medicare cohorts to estimate Hurricane Katrina's long-run mortality effects on victims initially living in New Orleans. Including the initial shock, the hurricane improved eight-year survival by 2.07 percentage points. Migration to lower-mortality regions explains most of this survival increase. Those migrating to low-versus high-mortality regions look similar at baseline, but their subsequent mortality is 0.83-1.01 percentage points lower per percentage point reduction in local mort...
-
作者：Squicciarini, Mara P.
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：This paper studies when religion can hamper diffusion of knowledge and economic development, and through which mechanism. I examine Catholicism in France during the Second Industrial Revolution (1870-1914). In this period, technology became skill-intensive, leading to the introduction of technical education in primary schools. I find that more religious locations had lower economic development after 1870. Schooling appears to be the key mechanism: more religious areas saw a slower adoption of ...
-
作者：Dubois, Pierre; Griffith, Rachel; O'Connell, Martin
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Manchester
摘要：Soda taxes aim to reduce excessive sugar consumption. We assess who is most impacted by soda taxes. We estimate demand using micro longitudinal data covering on-the-go purchases, and exploit the panel dimension to estimate individual-specific preferences. We relate these preferences and counterfactual predictions to individual characteristics and show that soda taxes are relatively effective at targeting the sugar intake of the young, are less successful at targeting the intake of those with h...
-
作者：Basak, Deepal; Deb, Joyee
作者单位：Indian School of Business (ISB); Yale University
摘要：We consider bargaining environments in which public opinion provides leverage by making compromises costly. Two parties make initial demands, before knowing the public opinion. If deadlocked, they can bargain again after public opinion forms, but suffer reputation costs if they compromise, i.e., scale back their demands. We show that in equilibrium, parties may choose to make incompatible demands initially and gamble over public opinion even though one or both parties must bear a cost later We...
-
作者：Bursztyn, Leonardo; Egorov, Georgy; Fiorin, Stefano
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：Social norms, usually persistent, can change quickly when new public information arrives, such as a surprising election outcome. People may become more inclined to express views or take actions previously perceived as stigmatized and may judge others less negatively for doing so. We examine this possibility using two experiments. We first show via revealed preference experiments that Donald Trump's rise in popularity and eventual victory increased individuals' willingness to publicly express x...
-
作者：Crouzet, Nicolas; Mehrotra, Neil R.
作者单位：Northwestern University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This paper uses new confidential Census data to revisit the relationship between firm size, cyclicality, and financial frictions. First, we find that large firms (the top 1 percent by size) are less cyclically sensitive than the rest. Second, high and rising concentration implies that the higher cyclicality of the bottom 99 percent of firms only has a modest impact on aggregate fluctuations. Third, differences in cyclicality are not simply explained by financing, and in fact appear largely unr...
-
作者：Armand, Alex; Coutts, Alexander; Vicente, Pedro C.; Vilela, Ines
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Universidade Nova de Lisboa; Universidade Nova de Lisboa; University of London; Royal Holloway University London
摘要：Natural resources can have a negative impact on the economy through corruption and civil conflict. This paper tests whether information can counteract this political resource curse. We implement a large-scale field experiment following the dissemination of information about a substantial natural gas discovery in Mozambique. We measure outcomes related to the behavior of citizens and local leaders through georeferenced conflict data, behavioral activities, lab-in-the-field experiments, and surv...
-
作者：Fink, Guenther; Jack, B. Kelsey; Masiye, Felix
作者单位：Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+); University of Basel; Swiss Tropical & Public Health Institute; University of Basel; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Rural economies in many developing countries are characterized by a lean season in the months preceding harvest, when farmers have depleted their cash and grain savings from the previous year. To identify the impacts of liquidity during the lean season, we offered subsidized loans in randomly selected villages in rural Zambia. Ninety-eight percent of households took up the loan. Loan eligibility led to increases in on-farm labor and agricultural output, driving up wages in local labor markets....
