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作者：Schwartzstein, Joshua; Sunderam, Adi
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：We present a framework where model persuaders inf hence receivers' beliefs by proposing models that organize past data to make predictions. Receivers are assumed to find models more compelling when they better explain the data, fixing receivers' prior beliefs. Model persuaders face a trade-gTh better-fitting models induce less movement in receivers' beliefs. Consequently, a receiver exposed to the true model can be most misled by persuasion when that model fits poorly, competition between pers...
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作者：Perla, Jesse; Tonetti, Christopher; Waugh, Michael E.
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
摘要：We study how opening to trade affects economic growth in a model where heterogeneous firms can adopt new technologies already in use by other ts in their home country. We characterize the growth rate using a summary statistic of the profit distribution: the mean -min ratio. Opening to trade increases the profit spread through increased export opportunities and foreign competition, induces more rapid technology adoption, and generates faster growth. Quantitatively, these forces produce large we...
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作者：Mueller, Andreas, I; Spinnewijn, Johannes; Topa, Giorgio
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This paper uses job seekers' elicited beliefs about job finding 10 disentangle the sources of the decline in job finding rates by duration of unemployment. We document that beliefs have strong predictive power for job finding, but are not revised downward when remaining unemployed and are subject to optimistic bias, especially for the long-term unemployed. Leveraging the predictive power of beliefs, we find substantial heterogeneity in job finding with the resulting dynamic selection explainin...
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作者：Akcigit, Ufuk; Alp, Harun; Peters, Michael
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Yale University
摘要：Delegating managerial tasks is essential for firm growth. Most firms in developing countries, however, do not hire outside managers but instead rely on family members. In this paper, we ask if this lack of managerial delegation can explain why firms in poor countries are small and whether it has important aggregate consequences. We construct a model of firm growth where entrepreneurs have a fixed time endowment to run their daily operations. As firms grow large, the need to hire outside manage...
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作者：Avery, Christopher; Pathak, Parag A.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：School choice systems aspire to delink residential location and school assignments by allowing children to apply to schools outside of their neighborhood. However, choice programs also affect incentives to live in certain neighborhoods, and this feedback may undermine the goals of choice. We investigate this possibility by developing a model of public school and residential choice. School choice narrows the range between the highest and lowest quality schools compared to neighborhood assignmen...
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作者：Bierbrauer, Felix J.; Boyer, Pierre C.; Peichl, Andreas
作者单位：University of Cologne; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; Ecole Polytechnique; ENSAE Paris; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：We study reforms of nonlinear income tax systems from a political economy perspective. We present a median voter theorem for monotonic tax reforms, reforms so that the change in the tax burden is a monotonic function of income. We also provide an empirical analysis of tax reforms, with a focus on the United States. We show that past reforms have, by and large, been monotonic. We also show that support by the median voter was aligned with majority support in the population. Finally, we develop ...
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作者：Rogall, Thorsten
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：Do political elites use armed groups to foster civilian participation in genocidal violence? Are armed groups employed strategically? How do they mobilize civilians? I investigate these questions using data from the Rwandan Genocide. To establish causality, I exploit exogenous variation in armed groups' transport costs induced by weather fluctuations; the shortest distance of each village to the main road interacted with rainfall along the dirt tracks between main road and village. I find (i) ...
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作者：Baugh, Brian; Ben-David, Itzhak; Park, Hoonsuk; Parker, Jonathan A.
作者单位：University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Melbourne; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Analyzing account-level data from an account aggregator, we find that households increase consumption when they receive expected tax refunds, as if they face liquidity constraints. However, these same households smooth consumption when making payments in other years, primarily by transferring funds among liquid accounts. Even households carrying credit card debt smooth consumption when making payments, and even highly liquid households spend out of refunds. This behavior is inconsistent with p...
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作者：Ulate, Mauricio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：After the Great Recession several central banks started setting negative nominal interest rates in an expansionary attempt, but the effectiveness of this measure remains unclear. Negative rates can stimulate the economy by lowering the rates that commercial banks charge on loans, but they can also erode bank profitability by squeezing deposit spreads. This paper studies the effects of negative rates in a new DSGE model where banks intermediate the transmission of monetary policy. I use hank-le...
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作者：Winberry, Thomas
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I study the aggregate implications of micro-level lumpy investment in a model consistent with the empirical dynamics of the real interest rate. The elasticity of aggregate investment with respect to shocks is procyclical because more firms are likely to make an extensive margin investment in expansions than in recessions. Matching the dynamics of the real interest rate is key to generating this result because it disciplines the interest-elasticity of investment and avoids counterfactual behavi...
