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作者：Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
摘要：Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25 percent of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new long-run cross-country database to study the macroeconomic history of populism. We identify 51 populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020 and show that the economic cost of populism is high. After 15 years, GDP per capita is 10 percent lower compared to a plausible nonpopulist counterfactual. E...
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作者：Sodini, Paolo; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stun; Vestman, Roine; Von Lilienfeld-Toal, Ulf
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Columbia University; Stockholm University; University of Luxembourg
摘要：Homeownership is widely stimulated by policy, yet its economic effects are poorly understood. We exploit quasi-random variation in homeownership generated by privatization decisions of municipally owned buildings and use granular data on demographics, income, housing, financial wealth, and debt that allow us to construct high-quality measures of spending. Homeownership causes wealth accumulation via house price appreciation, increases consumption, and improves consumption smoothing across time...
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作者：Black, Sandra E.; Denning, Jeffrey T.; Dettling, Lisa J.; Goodman, Sarena; Turner, Lesley J.
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Growing reliance on student loans and repayment difficulties have raised concerns of a student debt crisis in the United States, but little is known about the effects of student borrowing on human capital and long-run financial well-being. We use variation induced by recent expansions in federal loan limits combined with administrative data sets to identify the effects of increased access to student loans on credit-constrained students' educational attainment, earnings, debt, and loan repaymen...
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作者：Deshpande, Manasi; Dizon-Ross, Rebecca
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：How does the expectation that a child will receive government benefits in adulthood affect parental investments in the child's human capital? Most parents whose children receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits overestimate the likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. We present randomly selected families with the predicted likelihood that their child will receive SSI benefits in adulthood. Reducing parents' expectations that children will receive benefits...
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作者：Liu, Shuo; Netzer, Nick
作者单位：Peking University; University of Zurich
摘要：Surveys measuring happiness or preferences generate discrete ordi-nal data. Ordered response models, which are used to analyze such data, suffer from an identification problem. Their conclusions depend on distributional assumptions about a latent variable. We propose using response times to solve that problem. Response times contain information about the distribution of the latent variable through a chronometric effect. Using an online survey experiment, we verify the chronometric effect. We t...
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作者：Ward, Zachary
作者单位：Baylor University
摘要：A large body of evidence finds that relative mobility in the US has declined over the past 150 years. However, long-run mobility estimates are usually based on White samples and therefore do not account for the limited opportunities available for nonwhite families. Moreover, historical data measure the father's status with error, which biases estimates toward greater mobility. Using linked census data from 1850 to 1940, I show that accounting for race and measurement error can double estimates...
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作者：Gross, Daniel P.; Sampat, Bhaven N.
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：During World War II, the US government's Office of Scientific Research and Development (OSRD) supported one of the largest public investments in applied R&D in US history. Using data on all OSRD-funded invention, we show this shock had a formative impact on the US innovation system, catalyzing technology clusters across the country, with accompanying increases in high-tech entrepreneurship and employment. These effects persist until at least the 1970s and appear to be driven by agglomerative f...
