Populist Leaders and the Economy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph
• 署名单位: Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20202045
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 3249-3288
• 关键词: latin-america; GROWTH; NEOLIBERALISM; NATIONALISM; Brexit; trust; COSTS; time

摘要

Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25 percent of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new long-run cross-country database to study the macroeconomic history of populism. We identify 51 populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020 and show that the economic cost of populism is high. After 15 years, GDP per capita is 10 percent lower compared to a plausible nonpopulist counterfactual. Economic disintegration, decreasing macroeconomic stability, and the erosion of institutions typically go hand in hand with populist rule. (JEL D72, E23, N10, N40, O43)