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作者：Ray, Debraj; Genicot, Garance
作者单位：Georgetown University; New York University
摘要：We conceptualize and measure upward mobility over income or wealth. At the core of our exercise is the Growth Progressivity Axiom: transfers of instantaneous growth rates from relatively rich to poor individuals increases upward mobility. This axiom, along with mild auxiliary restrictions, identifies an upward mobility kernel with a single free parameter, in which mobility is linear in individual growth rates, with geometrically declining weights on baseline incomes. We extend this kernel to t...
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作者：Brodeur, Abel; Carrell, Scott; Figlio, David; Lusher, Ester
作者单位：University of Ottawa; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Rochester; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh
摘要：We use unique data from journal submissions to identify and unpack publication bias and p- hacking. We find initial submissions display significant bunching, suggesting the distribution among published statistics cannot be fully attributed to a publication bias in peer review. Desk- rejected manuscripts display greater heaping than those sent for review; i.e., marginally significant results are more likely to be desk rejected. Reviewer recommendations, in contrast, are positively associated wi...
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作者：Chan, David C.; Card, David; Taylor, Lowell
作者单位：US Department of Veterans Affairs; Veterans Health Administration (VHA); VA Palo Alto Health Care System; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：We study public versus private provision of health care for veterans aged 65 and older who may receive care provided by the US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and in private hospitals financed by Medicare. Utilizing the ambulance design of Doyle et al. (2015), we find that the VA reduces 28- day mortality by 46 percent ( 4.5 percentage points) and that these survival gains are persistent. The VA also reduces 28- day spending by 21 percent and delivers strikingly different reported services...
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作者：Ito, Koichiro; Ida, Takanori; Tanaka, Makoto
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Kyoto University; National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies
摘要：We study a problem in which policymakers need to screen self- selected individuals by unobserved heterogeneity in social welfare gains from a policy intervention. In our framework, the marginal treatment effects and marginal treatment responses arise as key statistics to characterize social welfare. We apply this framework to a randomized field experiment on electricity plan choice. Consumers were offered welfare- improving dynamic pricing with randomly assigned take- up incentives. We find th...
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作者：Mulhern, Christine
作者单位：RAND Corporation
摘要：Counselors are a common school resource for students navigating complicated and consequential education choices. I estimate counselors' causal effects using quasi-random assignment policies in Massachusetts. Counselors vary substantially in their effectiveness at increasing high school graduation and college attendance, selectivity, and persistence. Counselor effects on educational attainment are similar in magnitude to teacher effects, but they flow through improved information and assistance...
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作者：Ali, S. Nageeb; Bernheim, B. Douglas; Bloedel, Alexander W.; Battilana, Silvia Console
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Stanford University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We model legislative decision- making with an agenda setter who can propose policies sequentially, tailoring each proposal to the status quo that prevails after prior votes. Voters are sophisticated, and the agenda setter cannot commit to future proposals. Nevertheless, the agenda setter obtains her favorite outcome in every equilibrium regardless of the initial default policy. Central to our results is a new condition on preferences, manipulability, that holds in rich policy spaces, including...
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作者：Aghion, Philippe; Bergeaud, Antonin; Van Reenen, John
作者单位：Universite PSL; College de France; INSEAD Business School; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We present a framework that can be used to assess the equilibrium impact of regulation on endogenous innovation with heterogeneous firms. We implement this model using French firm-level panel data, where there is a sharp increase in the burden of labor regulations on companies with 50 or more employees. Consistent with the model's qualitative predictions, we find a fall in the fraction of innovating firms just to the left of the regulatory threshold. Furthermore, we find a reduction in the inn...
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作者：Barnichon, Regis; Mesters, Geert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI)
摘要：The evaluation of macroeconomic policy decisions has traditionally relied on the formulation of a specific economic model. In this work, we show that two statistics are sufficient to detect, often even correct, nonoptimal policies, i.e., policies that do not minimize the loss function. The two sufficient statistics are (i) forecasts for the policy objectives conditional on the policy choice and (ii) the impulse responses of the policy objectives to policy shocks. Both statistics can be estimat...
