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作者：Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Pham, Tho; Talavera, Oleksander
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Reading; University of Birmingham
摘要：We develop a deep learning model to detect emotions embedded in press conferences after the Federal Open Market Committee meetings and examine the influence of the detected emotions on financial markets. We find that, after controlling for the Federal Reserve's actions and the sentiment in policy texts, a positive tone in the voices of Federal Reserve chairs leads to significant increases in share prices. Other financial variables also respond to vocal cues from the chairs. Hence, how policy m...
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作者：Lanteri, Andrea; Rampini, Adriano A.
作者单位：Duke University
摘要：We characterize efficiency in an equilibrium model of investment and capital reallocation with heterogeneous firms facing collateral constraints. The model features two types of pecuniary externalities: collateral externalities, because the resale price of capital affects collateral constraints, and distributive externalities, because buyers of old capital are more financially constrained than sellers, consis-tent with empirical evidence. We prove that the stationary equilib-rium price of old ...
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作者：Banerjee, Abhijit; Hanna, Rema; Olken, Benjamin A.; Satriawan, Elan; Sumarto, Sudarno
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University; Gadjah Mada University
摘要：We compare how in-kind food assistance and an electronic voucher -based program affect the delivery of aid in practice. The Government of Indonesia randomized across 105 districts the transition from in-kind rice to approximately equivalent electronic vouchers redeemable for rice and eggs at a network of private agents. Targeted households received 46 percent more assistance in voucher areas. For the bottom 15 percent of households at baseline, poverty fell 20 percent. Voucher recipients recei...
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作者：Rafey, Will
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：This paper develops and applies a method to value water trading on a river network. The framework relies on regulatory variation in diversion caps to identify production functions for irrigated farms, then uses the estimated shadow values to assess the market's reallocation. I apply this framework to the largest water market in human history, located in southeastern Australia. Observed water trading increased output by 4-6 percent from 2007 to 2015, equivalent to avoiding an 8-12 percent unifo...
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作者：Saccardo, Silvia; Serra-Garcia, Marta
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Moral behavior is more prevalent when individuals cannot easily distort their beliefs self-servingly. Do individuals seek to limit or enable their ability to distort beliefs? How do these choices affect behavior? Experiments with over 9,000 participants show prefer-ences are heterogeneous-30 percent of participants prefer to limit belief distortion, while over 40 percent prefer to enable it, even if costly. A random assignment mechanism reveals that being assigned to the preferred environment ...
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作者：Braxton, Carter; Taska, Bledi
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We examine the role of technological change in explaining the large and persistent decline in earnings following job loss. Using detailed skill requirements from the near universe of online vacancies, we estimate technological change by occupation and find that techno-logical change accounts for 45 percent of the decline in earnings after job loss. Technological change lowers earnings after job loss by requiring workers to have new skills to perform newly created jobs in their prior occupation...
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作者：Lind, Nelson; Ramondo, Natalia
作者单位：Emory University; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a trade model with correlation in productivity across coun-tries. The model spans the full class of generalized extreme value import demand systems and implies that countries with relatively dissimilar technology gain more from trade. In the context of a multisector trade model, we provide a tractable and flexible estimation procedure for correlation based on compressing highly disaggregate sectoral data into a few latent factors related to technology classes. We estimate significan...
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作者：Sampson, Thomas
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper quantifies the contribution of technology gaps to inter-national income inequality. I develop an endogenous growth model where cross-country differences in R&D efficiency and cross-industry differences in innovation and adoption opportunities together determine equilibrium technology gaps, trade patterns, and income inequality. Countries with higher R&D efficiency are richer and have comparative advantage in more innovation-dependent industries. I calibrate R&D efficiency by country...
