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作者：Cheremukhin, Anton; Golosov, Mikhail; Guriev, Sergei; Tsyvinski, Aleh
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of Chicago; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Yale University
摘要：We quantify the effects of the political development cycle-the flucopment policies-on growth and structural transformation of China in 1953-1978. The left policies prioritized structural transformation toward nonagricultural production and consumption at the expense of agricultural development. The right policies prioritized agricultural consumption through slower structural transformation. The imperfect implementation of these policies led to large welfare costs of the political development c...
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作者：Martinez-Marquina, Alejandro; Shi, Mike
作者单位：University of Southern California; Stanford University
摘要：We provide evidence of the existence of debt aversion and its negative implications for financial decisions. In a new experimental design where subjects are assigned debt randomly, we quantify the opportunity cost of subjects' debt-biased decisions. One-third of our participants neglect high returns and focus instead on debt repayments. In addition, borrowing to invest is 50 percent less likely when it leads to indebtedness. On average, participants perceive $1 less in debt as equivalent to $1...
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作者：Alan, Sule; Mumcu, Ipek
作者单位：European University Institute; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University; University of Exeter
摘要：We evaluate a pedagogical intervention aimed at improving learning in elementary school children by fostering their curiosity. We test the effectiveness of the pedagogy using achievement scores and a novel measure of curiosity. The latter involves creating a sense of information deprivation and quantifying the urge to acquire information and retention ability. The intervention increases curiosity, knowledge retention, and science test scores, with the effects persisting into middle school year...
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作者：Engelmann, Jan B.; Lebreton, Mael; Salem-Garcia, Nahuel A.; Schwardmann, Peter; van der Weele, Joel J.
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Paris School of Economics; University of Geneva; Carnegie Mellon University
摘要：Across five experiments (N = 1,714), we test whether people engage in wishful thinking to alleviate anxiety about adverse future outcomes. Participants perform pattern recognition tasks in which some patterns may result in an electric shock or a monetary loss. Diagnostic of wishful thinking, participants are less likely to correctly identify patterns that are associated with a shock or loss. Wishful thinking is more pronounced under more ambiguous signals and only reduced by higher accuracy in...
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作者：Exley, Christine L.; Kessler, Judd B.
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Myriad environments allow for the possibility of confusion. Agents may appeal to such confusion-or the possibility of making an honest mistake-to justify their behavior. In three sets of experiments involving thousands of subjects, we document evidence of such motivated errors. We document this evidence in a simple environment in which the scope for errors is small and in more complex environments in which subjects display correlation neglect and an anchoring bias.
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作者：Baum-Snow, Nathaniel; Gendron-Carrier, Nicolas; Pavan, Ronni
作者单位：University of Toronto; McGill University; University of Rochester
摘要：Using Canadian administrative data, this paper presents evidence of revenue and productivity spillovers across firms at fine spatial scales. Accounting for the endogenous sorting of firms across space, we estimate an average elasticity of firm revenue and productivity with respect to the average quality of other firms within 75 meters of 0.024. We find scant evidence that the average firm benefits from being surrounded by a greater amount of economic activity at this spatial scale. Sorting of ...
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作者：Angelucci, Charles; Prat, Andrea
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Columbia University
摘要：To investigate general patterns in news information in the United States, we combine a protocol for identifying major political news stories, 11 monthly surveys with 15,000 participants, and a model of news discernment. When confronted with a true and a fake news story, 47 percent of subjects confidently choose the true story, 3 percent confidently choose the fake story, and the remaining half are uncertain. Socioeconomic differences are associated with large variations in the probability of s...
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作者：Grossman, Gene M.; Helpman, Elhanan; Redding, Stephen J.
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：We study unanticipated tariffs in a setting with firm-to-firm supply relationships. Firms conduct costly searches and negotiate with potential suppliers that pass a reservation level of match productivity. Global supply chains form in anticipation of free trade. Then, the home government surprises with an input tariff. This can lead to renegotiation with initial suppliers or search for replacements. Calibrating the model's parameters to match initial import shares and the estimated responses t...
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作者：Greenberg, Kyle; Pathak, Parag a.; Sonmez, Tayfun
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston College
摘要：We present a proof-of-concept for minimalist market design (Sonmez 2023) as an effective methodology to enhance an institution based on stakeholders'desiderata with minimal interference. Four objectivesrespecting merit, increasing retention, aligning talent, and enhancing trust-guided reforms to the US Army's centralized branching process of cadets to military specialties since 2006. USMA's mechanism for the class of 2020 exacerbated challenges in implementing these objectives. Formulating the...
