Anticipatory Anxiety and Wishful Thinkingt

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Engelmann, Jan B.; Lebreton, Mael; Salem-Garcia, Nahuel A.; Schwardmann, Peter; van der Weele, Joel J.
• 署名单位: University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Paris School of Economics; University of Geneva; Carnegie Mellon University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191068
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 926-960
• 关键词: financial incentives; DEFENSIVE PESSIMISM; decision-making; INFORMATION; optimism; utility; MODEL; valuation; accuracy; beliefs

摘要

Across five experiments (N = 1,714), we test whether people engage in wishful thinking to alleviate anxiety about adverse future outcomes. Participants perform pattern recognition tasks in which some patterns may result in an electric shock or a monetary loss. Diagnostic of wishful thinking, participants are less likely to correctly identify patterns that are associated with a shock or loss. Wishful thinking is more pronounced under more ambiguous signals and only reduced by higher accuracy incentives when participants' cognitive effort reduces ambiguity. Wishful thinking disappears in the domain of monetary gains, indicating that negative emotions are