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作者：Brooks, Benjamin; Frankel, Alexander; Kamenica, Emir
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Chicago
摘要：A signal is a description of an information source that specifies both its correlation with the state and its correlation with other signals. Extending Blackwell ( 1953 ) , we characterize when one signal is more valuable than another regardless of preferences and regardless of access to other signals. This comparison is equivalent to reveal- or-refine: every realization of the more valuable signal reveals the state or refines the realization of the less valuable signal. We also study other co...
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作者：Ganong, Peter; Greig, Fiona; Noel, Pascal; Sullivan, Daniel M.; Vavra, Joseph
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in US history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics-but not employment dynamics-during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for permanent behavi...
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作者：Keller, Lorena
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：I propose and test a new channel through which covered interest rate parity (CIP) deviations can affect bank lending in emerging econo-mies. I argue that when CIP deviations exist, banks attempt to arbi-trage them. To do so, banks must borrow in a particular currency. When this currency is scarce, bank lending in the currency required to arbitrage decreases, while they use this currency in their arbitrage activities. I test this channel by exploiting differences in the abilities of Peruvian ba...
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作者：Gadenne, Lucie; Norris, Samuel; Singhal, Monica; Sukhtankar, Sandip
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Queen Mary University London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of Cambridge; University of Virginia
摘要：Households in developing countries often face variation in the prices of consumption goods. We develop a model demonstrating that in-kind transfers will provide insurance benefits against price risk if the covariance between the marginal utility of income and price is positive. Using calorie shortfalls as a proxy for marginal utility, , we find that this condition holds for low-income Indian households. Expansions in India's flagship in-kind food transfer program not only increase caloric inta...
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作者：He, Zhiguo; Hu, Maggie; Wang, Zhenping; Yao, Vincent
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY); University System of Georgia; Georgia State University
摘要：We identify exposure to political risk by exploiting a unique variation around land lease extension protection after 2047 in Hong Kong's housing market due to historical arrangements. Relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, , those with unprotected leases granted by the current government are sold at a discount of 8 percent; ; those with colonial leases suffer an additional discount of 8 percent. Incorporating estimated structural parameters that suggest an addi...
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作者：Bryan, Gharad; Karlan, Dean; Osman, Adam
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：We experimentally study the impact of relatively large enterprise loans in Egypt. Larger loans generate small average impacts, , but machine learning using psychometric data reveals top performers ( those with the highest predicted treatment effects) ) substantially increase profits, , while profits drop for poor performers. The large differences imply that lender credit allocation decisions matter for aggregate income, , yet we find existing practice leads to substantial misallocation. We ar...
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作者：Agte, Patrick; Bernhardt, Arielle; Field, Erica; Pande, Rohini; Rigol, Natalia
作者单位：Yale University; New York University; Duke University; Harvard University
摘要：Poor entrepreneurs must frequently choose between business investment and children's education. To examine this trade-off, we exploit experimental variation in short-run microenterprise growth among a sample of Indian households and track schooling and business outcomes over eleven years. Treated households, who experience higher initial microenterprise growth, are on average one-third more likely to send children to college. However, educational investment and schooling gains are concentrated...
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作者：Board, Simon; Meyer-ter-Vehn, Moritz
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We propose a model of strategic experimentation on social networks in which forward-looking agents learn from their own and neighbors' successes. In equilibrium, , private discovery is followed by social diffusion. Social learning crowds out own experimentation, , so total information decreases with network density; we determine density thresholds below which agents' asymptotic learning is perfect. By contrast, , agent welfare is single peaked in network density and achieves a second-best benc...
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作者：Ellis, Andrew; Freeman, David J.
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Simon Fraser University
摘要：Experiments suggest that people fail to take into account interdependencies between their choices-they do not broadly bracket. Researchers often instead assume people narrowly bracket, , but existing designs do not test it. We design a novel experiment and revealed preference tests for how someone brackets their choices. In portfolio allocation under risk, , social allocation, , and induced-value shopping experiments, , 40-43 percent of subjects are consistent with narrow bracketing, and 0-16 ...
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作者：Moscona, Jacob; Seck, Awa Ambra
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Harvard University
摘要：We study how social organization shapes patterns of economic interaction and the effects of national policy , , focusing on the distinction between age-based and kin-based groups in sub-Saharan Africa. Motivated by ethnographic accounts suggesting that this distinction affects redistribution , , we analyze a cash transfer program in Kenya and find that in age-based societies there are consumption spillovers within the age cohort , , but not the extended family , , while in kin-based societies ...
