Big Loans to Small Businesses: Predicting Winners and Losers in an Entrepreneurial Lending Experiment†

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bryan, Gharad; Karlan, Dean; Osman, Adam
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20220616
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 2825-2860
• 关键词: Misallocation; personality; optimism

摘要

We experimentally study the impact of relatively large enterprise loans in Egypt. Larger loans generate small average impacts, , but machine learning using psychometric data reveals top performers ( those with the highest predicted treatment effects) ) substantially increase profits, , while profits drop for poor performers. The large differences imply that lender credit allocation decisions matter for aggregate income, , yet we find existing practice leads to substantial misallocation. We argue that some entrepreneurs are overoptimistic and squander the opportunities presented by larger loans by taking on too much risk, , and show the promise of allocations based on entrepreneurial type relative to firm characteristics. ( JEL C45, D22, G21, G32, L25, L26, O16) )