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作者：Munro, Evan; Kuang, Xu; Wager, Stefan
作者单位：University of Chicago; Stanford University
摘要：Policy-relevant treatment effect estimation in a marketplace setting requires assessing both the direct treatment benefit and spillovers induced by changes to the market equilibrium. We show how to identify and estimate policy-relevant treatment effects using a unit-randomized trial run within a single large market. A Bernoulli-randomized trial allows consistent estimation of direct effects and of treatment-heterogeneity measures that enable welfare-improving targeting. Estimating spillovers-a...
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作者：Kaniel, Ron; Orlov, Dmitry
作者单位：University of Rochester; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：Adverse selection benefits firms able to identify talent. An informed intermediary expropriates agents' ability by threatening to fire and expose them to undervaluation of their skill. An agent's track record gradually reduces intermediary's information advantage. In response, the intermediary starts churning well-performing agents she knows are less skilled. The accelerated reduction in information advantage boosts profits, as retained agents accept below-reservation wages to build reputation...
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作者：Coglianese, John; Olsson, Maria; Patterson, Christina
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; BI Norwegian Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We analyze a monetary quasi-experiment in Sweden from 2010-2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor market conditions warranted, driven instead by new concerns about financial stability. Using a battery of specifications that rule out domestic or international confounders, we show that this monetary tightening led to a substantial economic contraction, raising unemployment by 1-2 percentage points. Using administrative mi...
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作者：Gaubert, Cecile; Kline, Patrick; Vergara, Damian; Yagan, Danny
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study optimal income taxation in a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous locational preferences, labor supply decisions, and competitive housing and labor markets. Expressions characterizing the optimal tax schedule in each community are provided that capture the fiscal externalities associated with migration and the effects of redistribution between households and landlords. Correlation between skill and locational preferences yields optimal transfers to poor areas, while sorting ba...
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作者：Gomez-cram, Roberto; Lawrence, Alastair
作者单位：University of London; London Business School
摘要：Software is one of the most important assets that needs to be priced in the digital economy. It has emerged as a disruptive technology, with companies primarily valued for their software offerings growing from 2 percent to 13 percent of market share between 1996 and 2023. We document persistent anomalies in growth forecasts and stock returns for software companies, indicating significant deviations from rational expectations over multiple decades. Our findings are consistent with Bayesian inve...
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作者：Colonnelli, Emanuele; Neto, Valdemar Pinho; Teso, Edoardo
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Bocconi University; Northwestern University; Bocconi University
摘要：We study how individual political views shape firm behavior and labor market outcomes using new microdata from Brazil. We first show that business owners are considerably more likely to employ copartisan workers. This phenomenon is in part driven by the overlapping of political and social networks. Multiple tests-surveys, event studies, analyses of wage premia and promotions within the firm, and afield experiment-further highlight how business owners' political preferences directly influence f...
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作者：Carlana, Michela; La Ferrara, Eliana
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the Tutoring Online Program (TOP), where tutoring is entirely online and tutors are volunteer university students matched with underprivileged middle school students. We leverage random assignment to estimate effects during and after the pandemic (2020 and 2022), investigating channels of impact. Three hours of individual tutoring per week increased math performance by 0.22 SD in 2020 and 0.20 SD in 2022. Higher dosage yielded stronger effects, while group tutoring smaller effects. TO...
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作者：Greenwald, Daniel l.; Guren, Adam
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University
摘要：Did credit drive the 2000s housing cycle? The existing literature's findings range from credit having no effect to credit explaining most of the cycle. We show that these disparate results hinge on the extent to which landlords absorb credit-driven demand, which depends on the degree of housing market segmentation. We develop a model that nests cases between the extremes of no segmentation and perfect segmentation typically considered, estimate an elasticity that pins down the degree of segmen...
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作者：Godlonton, Susan; Theoharides, Caroline
作者单位：Williams College; Amherst College
摘要：International migrants may facilitate the transmission of ideas across countries. We examine the impact of migrant exposure to reproductive health policies on origin-country fertility in the Philippines. We exploit temporal variation in destination-country reproductive health policies combined with spatial variation across Philippine provinces in their migration intensity and historical composition of migrant destinations. Migrant exposure to more liberalized reproductive health policies reduc...
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作者：Alvarez, Fernando; Borovickova, Katarina; Shimer, Robert
作者单位：University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We develop a linear GMM estimator of the discrete-time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of duration with an arbitrary distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We allow for competing risks, observable characteristics, and censoring. We prove our estimator is consistent and apply it to the duration of price spells. We find substantial unobserved heterogeneity with economically meaningful implications for the response of output to a monetary policy shock in a model with time-dependent prici...
