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作者：Fieler, Ana Cecilia; Eaton, Jonathan
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：Welfare depends on the quantity, quality, and range of goods consumed. We use trade data, which report the quantities and prices of the individual goods that countries exchange, to learn about how the gains from trade and growth break down into these different margins. Our general equilibrium model, in which both quality and quantity contribute to consumption and to production, captures (i) how prices increase with importer and exporter per capita income, (ii) how the range of goods traded ris...
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作者：Sadler, Evan
作者单位：Columbia University
摘要：I propose a method for selecting seeds to maximize contagion. First, fit a random graph model using a coarse categorization of individuals. Next, compute a seed multiplier for each category-this is the average number of new infections a seed generates. Finally, seed the category with the highest multiplier. Relative to the most common methods, my approach requires far less granular data, and it consumes less computing power-the problem scales with the number of categories, not the number of in...
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作者：Imbens, Guido W.; Bandiera, Oriana; Halac, Marina; Ho, Kate; Jones, Charles I.; Pathak, Parag; Trebbi, Francesco; Yariv, Leeat
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作者：Ali, S. Nageeb; Mihm, Maximilian; Siga, Lucas
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; University of Essex
摘要：This paper offers a strategic rationale for zero-sum thinking in elections. We show that asymmetric information and distributional considerations together make voters wary of policies supported by others. This force impels a majority of voters to support policies contrary to their preferences and information. Our analysis identifies and interprets a form of adverse correlation that is necessary and sufficient for zero-sum thinking to prevail in equilibrium.
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作者：Ottinger, Sebastian; Voigtlander, Nico
作者单位：Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We create a novel reign-level data set for European monarchs, covering all major European states between the 10th and 18th centuries. We first document a strong positive relationship between rulers' cognitive ability and state performance. To address endogeneity issues, we exploit the facts that (i) rulers were appointed according to hereditary succession, independent of their ability, and (ii) the widespread inbreeding among the ruling dynasties of Europe led over centuries to quasirandom var...
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作者：Kolotilin, Anton; Zapechelnyuk, Andriy
作者单位：University of Edinburgh
摘要：A principal can restrict an agent's information (the persuasion problem) or discretion (the delegation problem). We study these two problems under standard single-crossing assumptions on the agent's marginal utility. We show that these problems are equivalent on the set of monotone stochastic mechanisms, implying, in particular, the equivalence of deterministic delegation and monotone partitional persuasion. We also show that the monotonicity restriction is superfluous for linear persuasion an...
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作者：Weber, Michael; Candia, Bernardo; Afrouzi, Hassan; Ropele, Tiziano; Lluberas, Rodrigo; Frache, Serafin; Meyer, Brent; Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Coibion, Olivier; Kenny, Geoff; Ponce, Jorge
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Columbia University; European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University ORT Uruguay; Universidad de Montevideo; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Auckland University of Technology; European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study whether the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation rose in advanced economies, both households and firms became more attentive and informed about publicly available news about inflation, leading them to respond less to exogenously provided information about inflation and monetary policy. We also study the effects of RCTs in countries where inflation h...
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作者：Itskhoki, Oleg; Mukhin, Dmitry
作者单位：Harvard University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：The Mussa (1986) puzzle is the observation of a sharp and simultaneous increase in the volatility of both nominal and real exchange rates following the end of the Bretton Woods System of pegged exchange rates in 1973. It is commonly viewed as a central piece of evidence in favor of monetary non-neutrality because it is an instance in which a change in the monetary regime caused a dramatic change in the equilibrium behavior of a real variable-the real exchange rate-and is often further interpre...
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作者：European Summer Meeting
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作者：Freyberger, Joachim; Larsen, Bradley J.
作者单位：University of Bonn; Washington University (WUSTL); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This study provides a structural analysis of detailed, alternating-offer bargaining data from eBay, deriving bounds on buyers and sellers private value distributions and the gains from trade using a range of assumptions on behavior and the informational environment. These assumptions range from weak (assuming only that acceptance and rejection decisions are rational) to less weak (e.g., assuming that bargaining offers are weakly increasing in players' private values). We estimate the bounds an...
