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作者：Dube, Oeindrila; Harish, S. P.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Do states experience more peace under female leadership? We examine this question in the context of Europe over the fifteenth to twentieth centuries. We use gender of the firstborn and presence of a sister among previous monarchs as instruments for queenly rule. We find that polities led by queens engaged in war more than polities led by kings. While single queens were more likely to be attacked than single kings, married queens were more likely to attack than married kings. These results sugg...
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作者：Cattaneo, Matias D.; Ma, Xinwei; Masatlioglu, Yusufcan; Suleymanov, Elchin
作者单位：Princeton University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：This paper illustrates how one can deduce preference from observed choices when attention is both limited and random. We introduce a random attention model where we abstain from any particular attention formation and instead consider a large class of nonparametric random attention rules. Our intuitive condition, monotonic attention, captures the idea that each consideration set competes for the decision maker's attention. We then develop a revealed preference theory and obtain testable implica...
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作者：Sotelo, Sebastian
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：I develop a model of agriculture on heterogeneous land to study the relation between trade, productivity, and welfare in Peru, where farmers face high internal and external trade costs. I quantify the model with new data on crop prices, yields, and land allocations. I then measure the effects of changes to trade opportunities. A policy of paving roads raises aggregate productivity (4.9%) and the median farmer's welfare (2.7%), but increased competition from remote suppliers harms 20% of farmer...
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作者：Cappelen, Alexander; List, John; Samek, Anya; Tungodden, Bertil
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Chicago; Australian National University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Southern California
摘要：We present results from the first study to examine the causal impact of early-childhood education on the social preferences of children. We compare children who, at 3-4 years old, were randomized into either a full-time preschool, a parenting program, or a control group. We returned to the children when they reached 6-8 years of age and conducted a series of incentivized experiments to elicit their social preferences. We find that early-childhood education has a strong causal impact on social ...
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作者：Harstad, Bard
作者单位：University of Oslo
摘要：Policy makers have time-inconsistent preferences if they fear losing power or are endowed with hyperbolic discount factors. Politicians may thus seek to influence future policy choices, for example, by investing in green technologies that motivate later politicians to act sustainably. I show that optimal investment subsidies are larger for technologies that are strategic complements to future investments, that are further upstream in the supply chain, or that are characterized by longer maturi...
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作者：Calvi, Rossella
作者单位：Rice University
摘要：Almost half of missing women in India are of postreproductive ages. Can intrahousehold gender inequality and asymmetry in poverty explain a portion of these missing women? Using a natural experiment, I link women's intrahousehold bargaining power to their mortality risk. Using a structural household model, I estimate the age profile of women's bargaining power and construct women's relative poverty rates. I find that women's bargaining power declines with age, with older women's poverty rates ...
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作者：Goldin, Jacob; Reck, Daniel
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：In many settings, decision makers' behavior is observed to vary on the basis of seemingly arbitrary factors. Such framing effects cast doubt on the welfare conclusions drawn from revealed-preference analysis. We relax the assumptions underlying that approach to accommodate settings in which framing effects are present. Plausible restrictions of varying strength permit either partial or point identification of preferences for the decision makers who choose consistently across frames. Recovering...
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作者：Orlov, Dmitry; Skrzypacz, Andrzej; Zryumov, Pavel
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; Stanford University; University of Rochester
摘要：A principal decides when to exercise a real option. A biased agent influences this decision by strategically disclosing information. Committing to disclose all information with a delay is the optimal way to persuade the principal to wait. Without dynamic commitment, this promise is credible only if the agent's bias is small; otherwise, he pipets information, probabilistically delaying the principal's action. When the agent is biased toward early exercise, his lack of commitment to remain quiet...
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作者：Garcia, Jorge Luis; Heckman, James J.; Leaf, Duncan Ermini; Prados, Maria Jose
作者单位：Clemson University; University of Chicago; University of Southern California
摘要：This paper quantifies and aggregates the multiple lifetime benefits of an influential high-quality early-childhood program with outcomes measured through midlife. Guided by economic theory, we supplement experimental data with nonexperimental data to forecast the life-cycle benefits and costs of the program. Our point estimate of the internal rate of return is 13.7%, with an associated benefit/cost ratio of 7.3. We account for model estimation and forecasting error and present estimates from e...
