Quantifying the Life-Cycle Benefits of an Influential Early-Childhood Program

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Garcia, Jorge Luis; Heckman, James J.; Leaf, Duncan Ermini; Prados, Maria Jose
• 署名单位: Clemson University; University of Chicago; University of Southern California
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/705718
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 2502-2541
• 关键词: social experiments; wage growth; abecedarian; TECHNOLOGY; earnings; outcomes; BIAS; care

摘要

This paper quantifies and aggregates the multiple lifetime benefits of an influential high-quality early-childhood program with outcomes measured through midlife. Guided by economic theory, we supplement experimental data with nonexperimental data to forecast the life-cycle benefits and costs of the program. Our point estimate of the internal rate of return is 13.7%, with an associated benefit/cost ratio of 7.3. We account for model estimation and forecasting error and present estimates from extensive sensitivity analyses. This paper is a template for synthesizing experimental and nonexperimental data using economic theory to estimate the long-run life-cycle benefits of social programs.