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作者：Doval, Laura; Smolin, Alex
作者单位：Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：Information policies such as scores, ratings, and recommendations are increasingly shaping society's choices in high-stakes domains. We provide a framework to study the welfare implications of information policies on a population of heterogeneous individuals. We define and characterize the Bayes welfare set, consisting of the population's utility profiles that are feasible under some information policy. The Pareto frontier of this set can be recovered by a series of standard Bayesian persuasio...
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作者：Rotberg, Shahar; Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：Wealth inequality has prompted calls for higher taxes on capital income and wealth but also concerns that rich households would respond by concealing their assets offshore. We use a general equilibrium model to study how taxing capital more heavily would affect offshore tax evasion and how this would affect the broader economy. Without evasion, tax revenue could be increased dramatically, inequality could be reduced, and widespread welfare gains could be achieved. After accounting for evasion,...
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作者：Lin, Xiao; Liu, Ce
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Michigan State University
摘要：We propose a new notion of credibility for Bayesian persuasion problems. A disclosure policy is credible if the sender cannot profit from tampering with her messages while keeping the message distribution unchanged. We show that the credibility of a disclosure policy is equivalent to a cyclical monotonicity condition on the policy's induced distribution over states and actions. We also characterize how credibility restricts the sender's ability to persuade under different payoff structures. In...
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作者：Andrew, Alison; Attanasio, Orazio P.; Bernal, Raquel; Sosa, Lina Cardona; Krutikova, Sonya; Rubio-Codina, Marta
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad de los Andes - Chile; The World Bank; University of Manchester; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：Globally, preschool enrollment has surged, but its quality is often poor. We evaluate strategies to improve quality of public preschools in Colombia. The first, designed by the government and rolled out nationwide, provided extra funding, mainly earmarked for hiring teaching assistants. The second also offered low-cost training for existing teachers. The first intervention had no effect on child development, while the second improved children's cognitive development, especially for more disadv...
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作者：Gabaix, Xavier; Koijen, Ralph S. J.
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Chicago
摘要：We develop a new method to construct instruments in a broad class of economic environments. In the economies we study, a few large firms, industries, or countries account for an important share of economic activity. Idiosyncratic shocks to these large players significantly affect aggregate outcomes and are valid instruments. We provide a methodology to extract these idiosyncratic shocks to create granular instrumental variables (GIVs), which are size-weighted sums of idiosyncratic shocks. We s...
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作者：Kapor, Adam; Karnani, Mohit; Neilson, Christopher
作者单位：Yale University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study the welfare and human capital impacts of colleges' (non)participation in Chile's centralized higher-education platform, leveraging administrative data and two policy changes: the introduction of a large scholarship program and the inclusion of additional institutions, which raised the number of on-platform slots by approximately 40%. We first show that the expansion of the platform raised on-time graduation rates. We then develop and estimate a model of college applications, offers, w...
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作者：Noack, Frederik; Costello, Christopher
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Credit markets and property rights are fundamental for modern economies, but their implications for the commons are unknown. Using a dynamic model of competitive resource extraction, we show that improving property right security unambiguously increases conservation incentives, but the effect of credit markets on resource extraction effort hinges on the security of property rights. We test these predictions using data on global fisheries, credit markets, and the largest ever marine property ri...
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作者：Auten, Gerald; Splinter, David
作者单位：United States Department of the Treasury
摘要：Concerns about income inequality emphasize the importance of accurate income measures. Estimates of top income shares based only on individual tax returns are biased by tax-base changes, social changes, and missing income sources. This paper addresses these shortcomings and presents new estimates of the distribution of national income since 1960. Our analysis of pretax income shows that top income shares are lower and have increased less since 1980 than other studies using tax data. In additio...
