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作者：Cloyne, James; Dimsdale, Nicholas; Huertgen, Patrick
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Oxford; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Popular New Keynesian macroeconomic models predict that cuts in various types of distortionary taxes are contractionary when monetary policy is constrained at the zero lower bound (ZLB). We turn to a long span of history in the United Kingdom to test this hypothesis. Using a new long-run dataset of narrative-identified tax changes from 1918 to 2020, we show that tax cuts are expansionary in both low-interest-rate environments and more normal times. We do not find evidence of a deflationary spi...
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作者：Maskin, Eric
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：We argue that Arrow's independence of irrelevant alternatives condition (IIA) is unjustifiably stringent because it rules out making a social welfare function sensitive to individuals' preference intensities. Accordingly, we propose a modified version of IIA, MIIA, that is a necessary and sufficient relaxation of IIA for taking account of intensities. Rather than obtaining an impossibility result, we show that MIIA together with several other axioms (satisfied by virtually all voting rules and...
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作者：Chen, Zefeng; Jiang, Zhengyang; Lustig, Hanno; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Xiaolan, Mindy Z.
作者单位：Peking University; Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Stanford University; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：We study three centuries of fiscal history. Dominant safe asset suppliers issue more debt than future primary surpluses can justify, even after accounting for seigniorage revenue from convenience yields. This pattern holds for the Dutch Republic (seventeenth to eighteenth centuries), the United Kingdom (eighteenth to nineteenth centuries), and the United States (twentieth to twenty-first centuries). When Dutch and UK fiscal fundamentals deteriorated, they lost their dominant position as the sa...
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作者：Chernozhukov, Victor; Fernandez-Val, Ivan; Luo, Siyi
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Boston University
摘要：We develop a distribution regression model under endogenous sample selection. This model is a semiparametric generalization of the Heckman selection model, which accommodates much richer patterns of heterogeneity in the effect of covariates and selection process and allows for departures from Gaussian errors while maintaining the same level of tractability. The model applies to continuous, discrete, and mixed outcomes. We provide identification, estimation, and inference methods and apply them...
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作者：Zaffaroni, Paolo
作者单位：Imperial College London
摘要：This paper develops a methodology, building on a local principal component analysis approach, for inference on the pricing ability of conditional asset pricing models designed to mitigate the effect of omitted risk factors and misspecified conditional dynamics. The methodology is designed to exploit the rich information available in large cross sections of individual stocks. Monte Carlo experiments and an empirical application demonstrate the benefits of this methodology over existing approach...
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作者：Wang, Shaoda; Yang, David Y.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)
摘要：Governments use policy experiments to facilitate learning, but the nature and effects of these experiments remain unclear. We analyze China's policy experimentation since 1980-among the most systematic in history-and document three facts. First, most experiments exhibit positive sample selection. Second, local politicians exert excessive efforts during experiments that are not replicable during policies' national rollout. Third, the central government is not fully sophisticated when interpreti...
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作者：Gowrisankaran, Gautam; Langer, Ashley; Zhang, Wendan
作者单位：Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Arizona; Renmin University of China
摘要：Government policy uncertainty affects irreversible decisions including technology adoption and exit. This paper quantifies uncertainty surrounding the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS). We estimate a dynamic oligopoly model for coal-fired electricity generators that recovers generators' beliefs regarding future MATS enforcement. We develop the approximate belief oligopoly equilibrium concept, where players understand that their decisions impact aggregate market states. MATS enforcement c...
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作者：Agostinelli, Francesco; Wiswall, Matthew
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：In this paper, we study the process of children's skill formation using a dynamic latent factor model to identify key features of the skill production function. We develop and estimate a joint dynamic process for latent investment and skill development, incorporating both static and dynamic complementarities between parental investments and children's skills in the technology of skill formation. Our analysis of US data reveals that early childhood investments (age 5-6) are highly effective for...
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作者：Ricks, Michael David; Kay, Owen
作者单位：University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：Pigouvian subsidies are efficient, but output subsidies with uncertain or limited durations are not Pigouvian. We show that optimal time-limited policies must also subsidize investment to correct externalities generated after the output subsidy ends. Furthermore, an output subsidy's optimal duration is characterized by the change in production when it ends. In the wind energy industry, we find that power generation decreases by 5%-10% after the end of facilities' 10-year eligibility for the Re...
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作者：Low, Hamish; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We show the extent of screening errors made in disability insurance awards using matched survey-administrative data. False rejections are widespread, with large gender differences. Work-disabled women are 12.8 percentage points more likely to be rejected than work-disabled men, controlling for health conditions, occupation, and demographics. Gender differences arise because women are assessed with more residual work capacity. We model the Social Security Administration (SSA) decision-making pr...
