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作者：Berger, Eva M.; Fehr, Ernst; Hermes, Henning; Schunk, Daniel; Winkel, Kirsten
作者单位：University of Zurich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz; University of Koblenz
摘要：Working-memory (WM) capacity is a key component of a wide range of cognitive and noncognitive skills-such as fluid IQ, math, reading, and inhibitory control-but can WM training improve these skills? Here, we examine the causal impact of WM training embedded in regular school teaching, using a randomized educational intervention with 6-7-year-old children. We find substantial gains in WM capacity and document positive spillover effects on geometry, fluid IQ, and inhibitory control. Three years ...
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作者：Arcidiacono, Peter; Aucejo, Esteban; Maurel, Arnaud; Ransom, Tyler
作者单位：Duke University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
摘要：We examine how informational frictions impact schooling and work outcomes by estimating a dynamic structural model where individuals face uncertainty about their academic ability and productivity, which determine their schooling utility and wages. We account for different college types, majors, occupational search frictions, and work hours. Individuals learn from grades and wages, which may affect their choices. Removing informational frictions would increase graduation by 4.4 percentage point...
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作者：Chetverikov, Denis; Sorensen, Jesper Riis-Vestergaard
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We develop a new method for selecting the penalty parameter for & ell;1-penalized M-estimators in high dimensions, which we refer to as bootstrapping after cross validation. We derive rates of convergence for the corresponding & ell;1-penalized M-estimator and also for the post-& ell;1-penalized M-estimator, which refits the nonzero entries of the former estimator without penalty in the criterion function. We demonstrate via simulations that our methods are not dominated by cross validation in...
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作者：Kolotilin, Anton; Corrao, Roberto; Wolitzky, Alexander
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We consider general Bayesian persuasion problems where the receiver's utility is single-peaked in a one-dimensional action. We show that a signal that pools at most two states in each realization is always optimal and that such pairwise signals are the only solutions under a nonsingularity condition on utilities. Our core results provide conditions under which the induced receiver action is single-dipped or single-peaked on each set of nested signal realizations. We also provide conditions for...
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作者：Howell, Sabrina T.; Rathje, Jason; Van Reenen, John; Wong, Jun
作者单位：New York University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：For governments procuring innovation, one choice is whether to specify desired products (a conventional approach) or allow firms to suggest ideas (an open approach). Using a US Air Force R&D grant program where open and conventional competitions were held simultaneously, we find that open awards increase both commercial innovation and technology adoption by the military. In contrast, conventional awards have no positive effects on new technology but do create more program lock-in. We present e...
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作者：Basak, Deepal; Zhou, Zhen
作者单位：Indiana University System; Indiana University Bloomington; Tsinghua University
摘要：We study optimal adversarial information design in a dynamic regime change game. Agents decide when to attack, if at all. We assume (1) delay incurs a continuous cost and (2) agents doubt the correctness of their actions. The game may end in a disaster due to weak fundamentals or panic-agents attacking despite sound fundamentals. We propose a timely disaster alert that promptly warns about impending disasters, making waiting for and following the alert the unique rationalizable strategy, there...
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作者：Heese, Carl; Lauermann, Stephan
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper studies a large majority election with voters who have heterogeneous private preferences and exogenous private information about an unknown state of the world. We show that a Bayesian persuader can achieve any state-contingent outcome in some equilibrium by providing additional information. In this setting, without the persuader's additional information, a version of the Condorcet jury theorem holds, in the sense that outcomes of large elections satisfy full-information equivalence....
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作者：Annan, Francis
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Misconduct-market actions that are unethical and indicative of fraud-is a significant yet poorly understood issue that underlies many economic transactions. We design a field experiment to study the impact of two-sided antimisconduct information programs, which we deploy on the local markets for mobile money (human ATMs) in Ghana. The programs lead to a large reduction in misconduct (-21 percentage points=-72%) and, as a result, broader improvements in overall market activity, consumer welfare...
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作者：Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Ruhl, Kim J.; Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Syracuse University; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Hunter College (CUNY); University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Toronto
摘要：We study China's export growth to the United States from 1950-2008, using a structural model to disentangle the effects of past tariff changes from the effects of changes in expectations of future tariffs. We find that the effects of China's 1980 Normal Trade Relations (NTR) grant lasted past its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the likelihood of losing NTR status decreased significantly during 1986-92 but changed little thereafter. US manufacturing employment trends s...
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作者：Aizawa, Naoki; Ko, Ami
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University
摘要：While the traditional role of insurers is to provide protection against individuals' idiosyncratic risks, insurers themselves face substantial uncertainties due to aggregate shocks. To prevent insurers from passing these aggregate risks onto consumers, governments have increasingly adopted dynamic pricing regulations, which limit insurers' ability to change premiums over time. We evaluate dynamic pricing regulation using an equilibrium model of the US long-term care insurance market, featuring...
