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作者：Exley, Christine L.; Kessler, Judd B.
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We run a series of experiments involving over 4,000 online participants and over 10,000 school-aged youth. When individuals are asked to subjectively describe their performance on a male-typed task relating to math and science, we find a large gender gap in self-evaluations. This gap arises when self-evaluations are provided to potential employers, and thus measure self-promotion, and when self-evaluations are not driven by incentives to promote. The gender gap in self-evaluations proves to be...
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作者：Grosjean, Pauline; Masera, Federico; Yousaf, Hasin
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Can political rallies affect the behavior of law enforcement officers toward racial minorities? Using data from 35 million traffic stops, we show that the probability that a stopped driver is Black increases by 5.74% after a Trump rally during his 2015-2016 campaign. The effect is immediate, specific to Black drivers, lasts for up to 60 days after the rally, and is not justified by changes in driver behavior. The effects are significantly larger among law enforcement officers whose estimated r...
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作者：Bordalo, Pedro; Conlon, John J.; Gennaioli, Nicola; Kwon, Spencer Y.; Shleifer, Andrei
作者单位：University of Oxford; Harvard University; Bocconi University
摘要：In many economic decisions, people estimate probabilities, such as the likelihood that a risk materializes or that a job applicant will be a productive employee, by retrieving experiences from memory. We model this process based on two established regularities of selective recall: similarity and interference. We show that the similarity structure of a hypothesis and the way it is described (not just its objective probability) shape the recall of experiences and thus probability assessments. Th...
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作者：Lanzani, Giacomo
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：I offer an axiomatization of risk models where the choices of the decision maker are correlation sensitive. By extending the techniques of conjoint measurement to the nondeterministic case, I show that transitivity is the von Neumann-Morgenstern axiom that has to be relaxed to allow for these richer patterns of behavior. To illustrate the advantages of the modeling choice, we provide a simple axiomatization for the salience theory model in our general framework. This approach leads to clear co...
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作者：Folke, Olle; Rickne, Johanna
作者单位：Uppsala University; Stockholm University
摘要：We describe how sexual harassment contributes to sex segregation and pay inequality in the labor market. Combining nationally representative survey data and administrative data, we show that both harassment and wages vary strongly and systematically across workplaces. Women self-report more harassment from colleagues and managers in male-dominated workplaces where wages are relatively high, and men self-report more harassment in female-dominated workplaces where wages are low. These patterns i...
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作者：Aneja, Abhay; Xu, Guo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We link newly digitized personnel records of the U.S. government for 1907-1921 to census data to study the segregation of the civil service by race under President Woodrow Wilson. Using a difference-in-differences design around Wilson's inauguration, we find that the introduction of employment segregation increased the black-white earnings gap by 3.4-6.9 percentage points. This increasing gap is driven by a reallocation of existing black civil servants to lower-paid positions, lowering their r...
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作者：Abadie, Alberto; Athey, Susan; Imbens, Guido W.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Michigan State University
摘要：Clustered standard errors, with clusters defined by factors such as geography, are widespread in empirical research in economics and many other disciplines. Formally, clustered standard errors adjust for the correlations induced by sampling the outcome variable from a data-generating process with unobserved cluster-level components. However, the standard econometric framework for clustering leaves important questions unanswered: (i) Why do we adjust standard errors for clustering in some ways ...
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作者：Bianchi, Javier; Mondragon, Jorge
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne
摘要：This article shows that the inability to use monetary policy for macroeconomic stabilization leaves a government more vulnerable to a rollover crisis. We study a sovereign default model with self-fulfilling rollover crises, foreign currency debt, and nominal rigidities. When the government lacks monetary independence, lenders anticipate that the government would face a severe recession in the event of a liquidity crisis and are therefore more prone to run on government bonds. In a quantitative...
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作者：Mullainathan, Sendhil; Obermeyer, Ziad
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We use machine learning as a tool to study decision making, focusing specifically on how physicians diagnose heart attack. An algorithmic model of a patient's probability of heart attack allows us to identify cases where physicians' testing decisions deviate from predicted risk. We then use actual health outcomes to evaluate whether those deviations represent mistakes or physicians' superior knowledge. This approach reveals two inefficiencies. Physicians overtest: predictably low-risk patients...
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作者：Chalendard, Cyril; Fernandes, Ana M.; Raballand, Gael; Rijkers, Bob
作者单位：The World Bank; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite Clermont Auvergne (UCA); Utrecht University
摘要：This article presents a new methodology to detect corruption in customs and applies it to Madagascar's main port. Manipulation of assignment of import declarations to inspectors is identified by measuring deviations from random assignment prescribed by official rules. Deviant declarations are more at risk of tax evasion, yet less likely to be deemed fraudulent by inspectors, who also clear them faster. An intervention in which inspector assignment was delegated to a third party validates our a...
