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作者：Baqaee, David R.; Burstein, Ariel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：We present a unified treatment of how welfare responds to changes in budget sets or technologies with taste shocks and nonhomothetic preferences. We propose a welfare metric that ranks production possibility frontiers that differs from one that ranks budget sets and characterize it using a general equilibrium generalization of Hicksian demand. This extends Hulten's theorem, the basis for constructing aggregate quantity indices, to environments with nonhomothetic and unstable preferences. We il...
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作者：Esponda, Ignacio; Oprea, Ryan; Yuksel, Sevgi
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：We provide evidence for a bias that we call representative signal distortion (RSD), which is particularly relevant to settings of statistical discrimination. Experimental subjects distort their evaluation of new evidence on individual group members and interpret such information to be more representative of the group to which the individual belongs (relative to a reference group) than it really is. This produces a discriminatory gap in the evaluation of members of the two groups. Because it is...
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作者：Babina, Tania; He, Alex Xi; Howell, Sabrina T.; Perlman, Elisabeth Ruth; Staudt, Joseph
作者单位：Columbia University; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This article studies how federal funding affects the innovation outputs of university researchers. We link person-level research grants from 22 universities to patents, publications, and career outcomes from the U.S. Census Bureau. We focus on the effects of large, idiosyncratic, and temporary cuts to federal funding in a researcher's preexisting narrow field of study. Using an event study design, we document that these negative federal funding shocks reduce high-tech entrepreneurship and publ...
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作者：Afrouzi, Hassan; Kwon, Spencer Y.; Landier, Augustin; Ma, Yueran; Thesmar, David
作者单位：Harvard University; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; University of Chicago; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We investigate biases in expectations across different settings through a large-scale randomized experiment where participants forecast stable stochastic processes. The experiment allows us to control forecasters' information sets as well as the data-generating process, so we can cleanly measure biases in beliefs. We report three facts. First, forecasts display significant overreaction to the most recent observation. Second, overreaction is stronger for less persistent processes. Third, overre...
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作者：Ghosh, Arkadev; Hwang, Sam Il Myoung; Squires, Munir
作者单位：Duke University; University of British Columbia
摘要：Close-kin marriage, by sustaining tightly knit family structures, may impede development. We find support for this hypothesis using U.S. state bans on cousin marriage. Our measure of cousin marriage comes from the excess frequency of same-surname marriages, a method borrowed from population genetics that we apply to millions of marriage records from the eighteenth to the twentieth century. Using census data, we first show that married cousins are more rural and have lower-paying occupations. W...
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Persson, Torsten
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Stockholm University
摘要：Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases may be almost impossible without a green transition-a substantial transformation of consumption and production patterns. To study such transitions, we propose a dynamic model, which differs from the common approach in economics in two ways. First, consumption patterns reflect not just changing prices and taxes, but changing values. Transitions of values and technologies create a dynamic complementarity that can help or hinder a green transition. Secon...
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作者：Berger, David; Bocola, Luigi; Dovis, Alessandro
作者单位：Duke University; Stanford University; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This article studies the macroeconomic implications of imperfect risk sharing implied by a class of New Keynesian models with heterogeneous agents. The models in this class can be equivalently represented as a representative-agent economy with wedges. These wedges are functions of households' consumption shares and relative wages, and they identify the key cross-sectional moments that govern the impact of households' heterogeneity on aggregate variables. We measure the wedges using U.S. househ...
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作者：Ganong, Peter; Noel, Pascal
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：There are three prevailing theories of mortgage default: strategic default (driven by negative equity), cash flow default (driven by negative life events), and double-trigger default (where both negative triggers are necessary). It has been difficult to compare these theories in part because negative life events are measured with error. We address this measurement error using a comparison group of borrowers with no strategic-default motive. Our central finding is that only 6% of underwater def...
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作者：Moscona, Jacob; Sastry, Karthik A.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：This article studies how innovation reacts to climate change and shapes its economic impacts, focusing on U.S. agriculture. We show in a model that directed innovation can either mitigate or exacerbate climate change's potential economic damage depending on the substitutability between new technology and favorable climatic conditions. To empirically investigate the technological response to climate change, we measure crop-specific exposure to damaging extreme temperatures and crop-specific inn...
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作者：Bilal, Adrien
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Unemployment rates differ widely across local labor markets. I offer new empirical evidence that high local unemployment emerges because of elevated local job-losing rates. Local employers, rather than local workers or location-specific factors, account for most of the spatial gaps in job stability. I propose a theory in which spatial differences in job loss emerge in equilibrium because of systematic differences between employers across local labor markets. The spatial sorting decisions of em...
