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作者：Azariadis, Costas; Kaas, Leo; Wen, Yi
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Konstanz; Tsinghua University
摘要：In U.S. data 1981-2012, unsecured firm credit moves procyclically and tends to lead GDP, while secured firm credit is acyclical; similarly, shocks to unsecured firm credit explain a far larger fraction of output fluctuations than shocks to secured credit. In this article, we develop a tractable dynamic general equilibrium model in which unsecured firm credit arises from self-enforcing borrowing constraints, preventing an efficient capital allocation among heterogeneous firms. Unsecured credit ...
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作者：Wagner, Ulrich J.
作者单位：University of Mannheim
摘要：This article develops an empirical framework for analysing the timing of international treaties. A treaty is modelled as a dynamic game among governments that decide on participation in every period. The net benefit of treaty membership increases over time. Spillovers among members and non-members accelerate or delay treaty formation by transforming participation into a strategic complement or substitute, respectively. The predictions of the model inform the estimation of the structural parame...
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作者：Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck; Dalgaard, Carl-Johan; Selaya, Pablo
作者单位：University of Southern Denmark; University of Copenhagen
摘要：The latitude gradient in comparative development is a striking fact: as one moves away from the equator, economic activity rises. While this regularity is well known, it is not well understood. Perhaps the strongest correlate of ( absolute) latitude is the intensity of ultraviolet radiation (UV-R), which epidemiological research has shown to be a cause of a wide range of diseases. We establish that UV-R is strongly and negatively correlated with economic activity, both across and within countr...
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作者：Chan, Tat Y.; Hamilton, Barton H.; Papageorge, Nicholas W.
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We propose a dynamic framework to study the value of medical innovation in the context of infectious disease. We apply our framework to evaluate an HIV treatment breakthrough known as HAART. The model captures how, in lowering both the expected cost and likelihood of HIV infection, HAART reduced the implicit price of risky sex. Forward-looking agents responded by optimally shifting their behaviour. The model also imposes equilibrium constraints, explicitly capturing how optimal shifts in behav...
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作者：Deltas, George; Herrera, Helios; Polborn, Mattias K.
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal
摘要：In elections with three or more candidates, coordination among like-minded voters is an important problem. We analyse the trade-off between coordination and learning about candidate quality under different temporal election systems in the context of the U.S. presidential primary system. In our model, candidates with different policy positions and qualities compete for the nomination, and voters are uncertain about the candidates' valence. This setup generates two effects: vote splitting (i.e. ...
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作者：Greaney, Brian P.; Kaboski, Joseph P.; Van Leemput, Eva
作者单位：Yale University; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：We provide an experimental and theoretical evaluation of a cost-reducing innovation in the delivery of self-help group microfinance services, in which privatized agents earn payments through membership fees for providing services. Under the status quo, agents are paid by an outside donor and offer members free services. In our multi-country randomized control trial, we evaluate the change in this incentive scheme on agent behaviour and performance, and on overall village-level outcomes. We fin...
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作者：Livshits, Igor; Mac Gee, James C.; Tertilt, Michele
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); University of Mannheim
摘要：Financial innovations are a common explanation for the rise in credit card debt and bankruptcies. To evaluate this story, we develop a simple model that incorporates two key frictions: asymmetric information about borrowers' risk of default and a fixed cost of developing each contract lenders offer. Innovations that ameliorate asymmetric information or reduce this fixed cost have large extensive margin effects via the entry of new lending contracts targeted at riskier borrowers. This results i...
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作者：Hansen, Stephen; Mcmahon, Michael
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Warwick
摘要：We provide the first direct empirical support for the importance of signalling in monetary policy by testing two key predictions from a novel structural model. First, all policymaker types should become less tough on inflation over time and secondly, types that weigh output more should have a more pronounced shift. Voting data from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee strongly support both predictions. Counterfactual results indicate signalling has a substantial impact on interest r...
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作者：Garfagnini, Umberto; Strulovici, Bruno
作者单位：University of Surrey; Northwestern University
摘要：How do successive, forward-looking agents experiment with interdependent and endogenous technologies? In this article, trying a radically new technology not only is informative of the value of similar technologies, but also reduces the cost of experimenting with them, in effect expanding the space of affordable technologies. Successful radical experimentation has mixed effects: it improves the immediate outlook for further experimentation but decreases the value and the marginal value of exper...
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作者：Alaoui, Larbi; Penta, Antonio
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We introduce a model of strategic thinking in games of initial response. Unlike standard models of strategic thinking, in this framework the player's depth of reasoning is endogenously determined, and it can be disentangled from his beliefs over his opponent's cognitive bound. In our approach, individuals act as if they follow a cost-benefit analysis. The depth of reasoning is a function of the player's cognitive abilities and his payoffs. The costs are exogenous and represent the game-theoret...
