Social Experimentation with Interdependent and Expanding Technologies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Garfagnini, Umberto; Strulovici, Bruno
• 署名单位: University of Surrey; Northwestern University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdw008
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1579-1613
• 关键词: Strategic experimentation; GROWTH; MODEL

摘要

How do successive, forward-looking agents experiment with interdependent and endogenous technologies? In this article, trying a radically new technology not only is informative of the value of similar technologies, but also reduces the cost of experimenting with them, in effect expanding the space of affordable technologies. Successful radical experimentation has mixed effects: it improves the immediate outlook for further experimentation but decreases the value and the marginal value of experimentation in a longer term, resulting in less ambitious incremental experimentation and in a reduced size of radical experimentation. Incremental experimentation lowers the option value of similar technologies, which may spur a new wave of radical experimentation. However, experimentation eventually stagnates for all parameters of the model.