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作者：Bierbrauer, Felix J.; Hellwig, Martin F.
作者单位：University of Cologne; Max Planck Society
摘要：We study the relation between mechanism design and voting in public good provision. If incentive mechanisms must satisfy conditions of robust coalition-proofness as well as robust incentive compatibility, the participants' contributions to public good provision can only depend on the level of the public good that is provided and that level can only depend on the population shares of people favouring one level over another. For a public good that comes as a single indivisible unit the outcome d...
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作者：Baliga, Sandeep; Ely, Jeffrey C.
作者单位：Northwestern University; Northwestern University
摘要：We study torture as a mechanism for extracting information from a suspect who may or may not be informed. We show that a standard rationale for torture generates two commitment problems. First, the principal would benefit from a commitment to torture a suspect he knows to be innocent. Secondly, the principal would benefit from a commitment to limit the amount of torture faced by the guilty. We analyse a dynamic model of torture in which the credibility of these threats and promises is endogeno...
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作者：Cheng, Xu; Liao, Zhipeng; Schorfheide, Frank
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In large-scale panel data models with latent factors the number of factors and their loadings may change over time. Treating the break date as unknown, this article proposes an adaptive group-LASSO estimator that consistently determines the numbers of pre- and post-break factors and the stability of factor loadings if the number of factors is constant. We develop a cross-validation procedure to fine-tune the data-dependent LASSO penalties and show that after the number of factors has been dete...
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作者：Muller, Ulrich K.; Watson, Markw.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider forecasts of the long-horizon average of a scalar variable, typically the growth rate of an economic variable. The main contribution is the construction of prediction sets with asymptotic coverage over a wide range of data generating processes, allowing for stochastically trending mean growth, slow mean reversion, and other types of long-run dependencies. We illustrate the ...
