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作者：Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：We document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of incumbency disadvantage: if a party has held the presidency of the country or the governorship of a state for some time, that party tends to lose popularity in the subsequent election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes. A quantitative analysis shows that the observed magnitude of incumbency disadvantage can arise in several different models of poli...
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作者：Lindqvist, Erik; Ostling, Robert; Cesarini, David
作者单位：Stockholm University; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Stockholm School of Economics; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We surveyed a large sample of Swedish lottery players about their psychological well-being 522 years after a major lottery event and analysed the data following pre-registered procedures. Relative to matched controls, large-prize winners experience sustained increases in overall life satisfaction that persist for over a decade and show no evidence of dissipating over time. The estimated treatment effects on happiness and mental health are significantly smaller. Follow-up analyses of domain-spe...
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作者：Bouton, Laurent; Lizzeri, Alessandro; Persico, Nicola
作者单位：Georgetown University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Northwestern University
摘要：This article presents a dynamic political-economic model of total government obligations. Its focus is on the interplay between debt and entitlements. In our model, both are tools by which temporarily powerful groups can extract resources from groups that will be powerful in the future: debt transfers resources across periods; entitlements directly target the future allocation of resources. We prove the following results. First, the presence of endogenous entitlements dampens the incentives of...
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作者：Mastrobuoni, Giovanni
作者单位：Collegio Carlo Alberto; University of Turin; University of Essex
摘要：An increasing number of police departments use information technology (IT) to optimize patrolling strategies, yet little is known about its effectiveness in preventing crime. Based on quasi-random access to predictive policing, this study shows that IT improves police productivity as measured by crime clearance rates. Thanks to detailed information on individual incidents and offender-level identifiers it also shows that criminals strategies are predictable. Moreover, the introduction of predi...
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作者：Murphy, Richard; Weinhardt, Felix
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
摘要：This article establishes a new fact about educational production: ordinal academic rank during primary school has lasting impacts on secondary school achievement that are independent of underlying ability. Using data on the universe of English school students, we exploit naturally occurring differences in achievement distributions across primary school classes to estimate the impact of class rank. We find large effects on test scores, confidence, and subject choice during secondary school, eve...
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作者：Starc, Amanda; Town, Robert J.
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Insurance benefit design has important implications for consumer welfare. In this article, we model insurer behaviour in the Medicare prescription drug coverage market and show that strategic private insurer incentives impose a fiscal externality on the traditional Medicare program. We document that plans covering medical expenses have more generous drug coverage than plans that are only responsible for prescription drug spending, which translates into higher drug utilization by enrolees. The ...
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作者：Attanasio, Orazio; Meghir, Costas; Nix, Emily
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Southern California
摘要：We estimate production functions for cognition and health for children aged 1-12 in India, based on the Young Lives Survey. India has over 70 million children aged 0-5 who are at risk of developmental deficits. The inputs into the production functions include parental background, prior child cognition and health, and child investments, which are taken as endogenous. Estimation is based on a nonlinear factor model, based on multiple measurements for both inputs and child outcomes. Our results s...
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作者：Hau, Harald; Huang, Yi; Wang, Gewei
作者单位：University of Geneva; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Renmin University of China
摘要：The large regional variation in minimum wage levels during the period 2002-8 in China implies that Chinese manufacturing firms experienced competitive shocks as a function of firm location and their low-wage employment share. We find that minimum wage hikes accelerate the input substitution from labour to capital, reduce employment growth and accelerate total factor productivity growth-particularly among the less productive firms under private Chinese or foreign ownership, but not among state-...
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作者：Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Rey, Helene
作者单位：Bank of England; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of London; London Business School; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：U.S. monetary policy shocks induce comovements in the international financial variables that characterize the Global Financial Cycle. A single global factor that explains an important share of the variation of risky asset prices around the world decreases significantly after a U.S. monetary tightening. Monetary contractions in the US lead to significant deleveraging of global financial intermediaries, a decline in the provision of domestic credit globally, strong retrenchments of international...
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作者：Varas, Felipe; Marinovic, Ivan; Skrzypacz, Andrzej
作者单位：Duke University; Stanford University
摘要：We study the design of monitoring in dynamic settings with moral hazard. An agent (e.g. a firm) benefits from reputation for quality, and a principal (e.g. a regulator) can learn the agent's quality via costly inspections. Monitoring plays two roles: an incentive role, because outcomes of inspections affect agent's reputation, and an informational role because the principal directly values the information. We characterize the optimal monitoring policy inducing full effort. When information is ...
