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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Fergusson, Leopoldo; Johnson, Simon
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
摘要：Medical innovations during the 1940s quickly resulted in significant health improvements around the world. Countries with initially higher mortality from infectious diseases experienced larger increases in life expectancy, population, and subsequent social conflict. This cross-country result is robust across alternative measures of conflict and is not driven by differential trends between countries with varying baseline characteristics. A similar effect is also present within Mexico. Initial s...
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作者：Rosenzweig, Mark R.; Udry, Christopher
作者单位：Yale University; Northwestern University
摘要：We examine empirically the generalizability of internally valid micro-estimates of causal effects in a fixed population over time when that population is subject to aggregate shocks. Using panel data, we show that the returns to investments in agriculture in India and Ghana, small and medium non-farm enterprises in Sri Lanka, and schooling in Indonesia fluctuate significantly across time periods. We show howthe returns to these investments interact with specific, measurable, and economically r...
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作者：Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：We document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of incumbency disadvantage: if a party has held the presidency of the country or the governorship of a state for some time, that party tends to lose popularity in the subsequent election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes. A quantitative analysis shows that the observed magnitude of incumbency disadvantage can arise in several different models of poli...
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作者：Guner, Nezih; Kaygusuz, Remzi; Ventura, Gustavo
作者单位：Sabanci University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：What are the macroeconomic effects of transfers to households with children? How do alternative policies fare in welfare terms? We answer these questions in an equilibrium life-cycle model with household labour supply decisions, skill losses of females associated to non-participation, and heterogeneity in terms of fertility, childcare expenditures, and access to informal care. Calibrating our model to the U.S. economy, we first provide a roadmap for policy evaluation by contrasting transfers t...
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作者：Stavrakeva, Vania
作者单位：University of London; London Business School
摘要：Financial regulation is harmonized across countries even though countries vary in their ability to bail-out their banking sector in the event of a crisis. This article addresses the question of whether countries with different fiscal capacity should optimally have different bank regulation, implemented-among other tools-through capital requirements-a question so far ignored by the theoretical banking literature. I show that countries with larger fiscal capacity should have lower ex ante minimu...
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作者：Guren, Adam M.; Mcquade, Timothy J.
作者单位：Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：This article uses a structural model to show that foreclosures played a crucial role in exacerbating the recent housing bust and to analyse foreclosure mitigation policy. We consider a dynamic search model in which foreclosures freeze the market for non-foreclosures and reduce price and sales volume by eroding lender equity, destroying the credit of potential buyers, and making buyers more selective. These effects cause price-default spirals that amplify an initial shock and help the model fit...
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作者：Jeanne, Olivier; Korinek, Anton
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Virginia; University of Virginia
摘要：How should macroprudential policy be designed when policymakers also have access to liquidity provision tools to manage crises? We show in a tractable model of systemic banking risk that there are three factors at play: first, ex post liquidity provision mitigates financial crises, and this reduces the need for macroprudential policy. In the extreme, if liquidity provision is untargeted and costless or if it completely forestalls crises by credible out-of-equilibrium lending-of-last-resort, th...
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作者：Aguirregabiria, Victor; Magesan, Arvind
作者单位：University of Toronto; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Calgary
摘要：This article deals with the identification and estimation of dynamic games when players' beliefs about other players' actions are biased, that is, beliefs do not represent the probability distribution of the actual behaviour of other players conditional on the information available. First, we show that an exclusion restriction, typically used to identify empirical games, provides testable non-parametric restrictions of the null hypothesis of equilibrium beliefs in dynamic games with either fin...
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作者：Bonatti, Alessandro; Cisternas, Gonzalo
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We study the implications of aggregating consumers' purchase histories into scores that proxy for unobserved willingness to pay. A long-lived consumer interacts with a sequence of firms. Each firm relies on the consumer's current score-a linear aggregate of noisy purchase signals-to learn about her preferences and to set prices. If the consumer is strategic, she reduces her demand to manipulate her score, which reduces the average equilibrium price. Firms in turn prefer scores that overweigh p...
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作者：Broer, Tobias; Hansen, Niels-Jakob Harbo; Krusell, Per; Oberg, Erik
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Uppsala University
摘要：We present a tractable heterogeneous-agent version of the New Keynesian model that allows us to study the interaction between inequality and monetary policy. Though formulated as a precautionary-saving model a la Huggett-Aiyagari, its reduced form is a two-agent model with a highly concentrated wealth distribution. When prices are sticky and wages flexible, as in the textbook representative-agent model, monetary policy affects the distribution of consumption, but has no effect on output as wor...
