Policy Inertia, Election Uncertainty, and Incumbency Disadvantage of Political Parties

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chatterjee, Satyajit; Eyigungor, Burcu
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdaa010
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 2600-2638
• 关键词: large numbers; advantage; MODEL; DYNAMICS; RISK; LAW

摘要

We document that postwar U.S. elections show a strong pattern of incumbency disadvantage: if a party has held the presidency of the country or the governorship of a state for some time, that party tends to lose popularity in the subsequent election. We show that this fact can be explained by a combination of policy inertia and unpredictability in election outcomes. A quantitative analysis shows that the observed magnitude of incumbency disadvantage can arise in several different models of policy inertia. Normative and positive implications of policy inertia leading to incumbency disadvantage are explored.