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作者：McGuirk, Eoin F.; Nunn, Nathan
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of British Columbia; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR)
摘要：We consider the effects of climate change on seasonally migrant populations that herd livestock-i.e. transhumant pastoralists-in Africa. Traditionally, transhumant pastoralists benefit from a cooperative relationship with sedentary agriculturalists whereby arable land is used for crop farming in the wet season and animal grazing in the dry season. Rainfall scarcity can disrupt this arrangement by inducing pastoral groups to migrate to agricultural lands before the harvest, causing conflict to ...
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作者：Arve, M.; Martimort, D.
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
摘要：We consider a procurement auction for the provision of a basic service to which an add-on must later be appended. Potential providers are symmetric, have private information on their cost for the basic service and the winning firm must also implement the add-on. To finance value-enhancing activities related to the add-on, this firm may need extra funding by outside financiers. Nonverifiable effort related to these activities creates a moral hazard problem which makes the firm's payoff function...
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作者：Cisternas, Gonzalo; Kolb, Aaron
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Pennsylvania State System of Higher Education (PASSHE); Indiana University of Pennsylvania
摘要：We study dynamic signalling when the sender does not see the signals that her actions generate. The sender then uses her past play to forecast what a receiver believes, in turn forcing the receiver to forecast the previous forecast, and so forth. We identify a class of linear-quadratic-Gaussian games where this endogenous higher-order uncertainty can be handled. The sender's second-order belief is key: it is a private state that she controls, and it creates a new channel for information transm...
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作者：Beraja, Martin; Zorzi, Nathan
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Dartmouth College
摘要：How should the government respond to automation? We study this question in a heterogeneous agent model that takes worker displacement seriously. We recognize that displaced workers face two frictions in practice: reallocation is slow and borrowing is limited. We analyze a second best problem where the government can tax automation but lacks redistributive tools to fully alleviate borrowing frictions. The equilibrium is (constrained) inefficient and automation is excessive. Firms do not interna...
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作者：Radbruch, Jonas; Schiprowski, Amelie
作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin; University of Bonn
摘要：Interviewing is a decisive stage of most processes that match candidates to firms and organizations. This article studies how and why a candidate's interview outcome depends on the other candidates interviewed by the same evaluator. We use large-scale data from high-stakes admission and hiring processes, where candidates are quasi-randomly assigned to evaluators and time slots. We find that the individual assessment decreases as the quality of other candidates assigned to the same evaluator in...
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作者：Akcigit, Ufuk; Pearce, Jeremy; Prato, Marta
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Bocconi University
摘要：How do innovation and education policy affect individual career choices and aggregate productivity? This paper analyses the effect of R&D subsidies and higher education policy on productivity growth through the supply of innovative talent. We put scarce talent, higher education attainment, and career choice at the centre of a new endogenous growth framework with individual-level heterogeneity in talent, financial resources, and preferences. We link the model to micro-level data from Denmark on...
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作者：Jarosch, Gregor; Nimczik, Jan Sebastian; Sorkin, Isaac
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; European School of Management & Technology; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Stanford University
摘要：We develop a model of size-based market power in a frictional labour market. In the canonical search environment, competition for workers is encoded in outside options. In our granular setting, large employers remove their own job postings from their workers' outside option. Thus, size gives market power and a more concentrated market structure depresses wages because it reduces competition for workers. We calibrate the model to Austrian data and find that such size-based market power depresse...
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作者：Feir, Donn L.; Gillezeau, Rob; Jones, Maggie E. C.
作者单位：University of Victoria; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Toronto; Emory University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In the late nineteenth century, the North American bison was brought to the brink of extinction in less than two decades. We demonstrate that the loss of the bison had immediate, negative consequences for the Native Americans who relied on them and ultimately resulted in a persistent reversal of fortunes. Once amongst the tallest people in the world, the generations of bison-reliant people born after the slaughter lost their entire height advantage. By the early twentieth century, child mortal...
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作者：Arellano, Cristina; Bai, Yan; Mihalache, Gabriel
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
摘要：Emerging markets have experienced large human and economic costs from coronavirus disease 2019, and their tight fiscal space has limited the support extended to their citizens. We study the impact of an epidemic on economic and health outcomes by integrating epidemiological dynamics into a sovereign default model. The sovereign's option to default tightens fiscal space and results in an epidemic with limited mitigation and depressed consumption. A quantitative analysis of our model accounts we...
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作者：Pei, Harry; Strulovici, Bruno
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：We construct mechanisms that can robustly implement any desired social choice function when (1) agents may incur a cost to learn the state of the world, (2) with small probability, agents' preferences can be arbitrarily different from some baseline known to the mechanism designer, and (3) the mechanism designer does not know agents' beliefs and higher-order beliefs about one another's preferences. The mechanisms we propose have a natural interpretation and do not require the mechanism designer...
