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作者：Garin, Andrew; Silverio, Filipe
作者单位：Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Banco de Portugal
摘要：Do firms adjust wages in response to changes in their own demand level or to changes in competitive pressure from rival employers? We study how exporters adjust wages in response to unexpected product demand shocks during the 2008-9 Great Recession. Using rich data on Portuguese firms' pre-recession export shipments, we measure firm-level shocks to export demand during the Recession. We show that shocks constructed at the firm level are not necessarily firm-specific and can be decomposed into ...
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作者：Bodenstein, Martin; Corsetti, Giancarlo; Guerrieri, Luca
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; European University Institute
摘要：The gains from monetary policy cooperation depend on real and financial distortions in the economy and evolve dynamically with prevailing economic conditions. We show that, with international trade in assets, these gains are driven by asymmetric cross-border developments in productivity and savings, and can reach multiples of the cost of economic fluctuations. When financial flows are restricted to nonstate-contingent bonds, the gains from cooperation grow with the size of global imbalances, i...
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作者：Chen, Xiaohong; Christensen, Timothy; Kankanala, Sid
作者单位：Yale University; University of London; University College London; Yale University
摘要：We introduce two data-driven procedures for optimal estimation and inference in nonparametric models using instrumental variables. The first is a data-driven choice of sieve dimension for a popular class of sieve two-stage least-squares estimators. When implemented with this choice, estimators of both the structural function h0 and its derivatives (such as elasticities) converge at the fastest possible (i.e. minimax) rates in sup-norm. The second is for constructing uniform confidence bands (U...
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作者：Folini, Doris; Friedl, Aleksandra; Kubler, Felix; Scheidegger, Simon
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Lausanne; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; University of Zurich
摘要：To analyse climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models-so-called climate emulators-that provide a realistic quantitative link between CO2 emissions and global warming at low computational costs. In this paper, we propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that are based on freely and easily accessible state-of-the-art benchmark data from climate sciences. We demonstrate that the appropriate choice of ...
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作者：Henn, Soeren J.; Mugaruka, Christian Mastaki; Ortiz, Miguel; de la Sierra, Raul Sanchez; Wu, David Qihang
作者单位：Newcastle University - UK; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This study presents a new economic perspective on state-building based on a case study in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's hinterland. We explore the implications for the state of considering rebels as stationary bandits. When the state, through a military operation, made it impossible for rebels to levy taxes, it inadvertently encouraged them to plunder the assets of the very citizens they previously preferred to tax. When it negotiated with rebels instead, this effect was absent, but n...
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作者：Fan, Jingting
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：I model and quantify the impact of a new dimension of globalization: offshore R&D. In the model, firms employ researchers across the globe to develop new product blueprints and then engage in offshore production and exporting. Frictions impeding trade and the separation of production from R&D lead to a market-access motive for offshore R&D, while cross-country differences in the distributions of firm knowhow and worker ability generate a talent-acquisition motive. I discipline the model using ...
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作者：Asriyan, Vladimir; Vanasco, Victoria
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作者：Giuliano, Paola; Nunn, Nathan
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作者：Baker, Scott R.; Bloom, Nicholas; Terry, Stephen J.
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; Boston University
摘要：Uncertainty rises in recessions and falls in booms. But what is the causal relationship? We construct cross-country panel data on stock market returns to proxy for first- and second-moment shocks and instrument these with natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and political shocks. Our IV regression results reveal a robust negative short-term impact of second moments (uncertainty) on growth. Employing multiple vector autoregression estimation approaches, relying on a range of identifying assump...
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作者：Azzimonti, Marina; Quadrini, Vincenzo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond; University of Southern California; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We study how cross-country macroeconomic spillovers caused by sovereign default affect equilibrium bailouts. Because of portfolio diversification, the default of one country causes a macroeconomic contraction in other countries, which motivates a bailout. But why do creditor countries choose to bailout debtor countries instead of their own private sector? We show that this is because an external bailout could be cheaper than a domestic bailout. We also show that although anticipated bailouts l...
