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作者：Grembi, Veronica; Nannicini, Tommaso; Troiano, Ugo
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; Bocconi University; Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Fiscal rules are laws aimed at reducing the incentive to accumulate debt, and many countries adopt them to discipline local governments. Yet, their effectiveness is disputed because of commitment and enforcement problems. We study their impact applying a quasi-experimental design in Italy. In 1999, the central government imposed fiscal rules on municipal governments, and in 2001 relaxed them below 5,000 inhabitants. We exploit the before/after and discontinuous policy variation, and show that ...
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作者：Autor, David H.; Duggan, Mark; Greenberg, Kyle; Lyle, David S.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; United States Department of Defense; United States Army; United States Military Academy
摘要：Combining administrative data from the US Army, Department of Veterans Affairs, and Social Security Administration, we analyze the effect of the VA's Disability Compensation (DC) program on veterans' labor force participation and earnings. We study the 2001 Agent Orange decision, a unique policy change that expanded DC eligibility for Vietnam veterans who served in theater but did not expand eligibility to other veterans of this era, to assess the causal effects of DC enrollment. We estimate t...
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作者：Brodeur, Abel; Le, Mathias; Sangnier, Marc; Zylberberg, Yanos
作者单位：University of Ottawa; Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; University of Bristol
摘要：Using 50,000 tests published in the AER, JPE, and QJE, we identify a residual in the distribution of tests that cannot be explained solely by journals favoring rejection of the null hypothesis. We observe a two-humped camel shape with missing p-values between 0.25 and 0.10 that can be retrieved just after the 0.05 threshold and represent 10-20 percent of marginally rejected tests. Our interpretation is that researchers inflate the value of just-rejected tests by choosing significant specificat...
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作者：Kanz, Martin
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：This paper studies the impact of debt relief, using a natural experiment arising from India's Agricultural Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme, one of the largest household-level debt relief initiatives in history. I find that debt relief has a substantial impact on household balance sheets, but does not affect savings, consumption and investment, as predicted by theories of debt overhang or balance sheet distress. Instead, debt relief leads to greater reliance on informal credit, reduced inves...
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作者：Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond; Schrimpf, Paul
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of British Columbia
摘要：Big data and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when...
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作者：Groeger, Andre; Zylberberg, Yanos
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; University of Bristol
摘要：We analyze how internal labor migration facilitates shock coping in rural economies. Employing high-precision satellite data, we identify objective variations in the inundations generated by a catastrophic typhoon in Vietnam and match them with household panel data before and after the shock. We find that, following a massive drop in income, households cope mainly through labor migration to urban areas. Households with settled migrants ex ante receive more remittances. Nonmigrant households re...
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作者：Chong, Alberto; Cohen, Isabelle; Field, Erica; Nakasone, Eduardo; Torero, Maximo
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Duke University; Michigan State University; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
摘要：Do nutritional deficiencies contribute to the intergenerational persistence of poverty by reducing the earnings potential of future generations? To address this question, we made available supplemental iron pills at a health center in rural Peru and encouraged adolescents to take them via media messages. School administrative data provide novel evidence that reducing iron deficiency results in a large and significant improvement in school performance and aspirations for anemic students. Our fi...
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作者：Bruhn, Miriam; Leao, Luciana de Souza; Legovini, Arianna; Marchetti, Rogelio; Zia, Bilal
作者单位：The World Bank; Columbia University; The World Bank; The World Bank
摘要：We study the impact of a comprehensive high school financial education program spanning 6 states, 892 schools, and approximately 25,000 students in Brazil through a randomized control trial. The program increased student financial proficiency by a quarter of a standard deviation and raised grade-level passing rates. Short-term financial behaviors, however, show mixed results with significant improvements in students' savings and budgeting as well as positive spillovers to parents, but also an ...
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作者：Autor, David H.; Manning, Alan; Smith, Christopher L.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We reassess the effect of minimum wages on US earnings inequality using additional decades of data and an IV strategy that addresses potential biases in prior work. We find that the minimum wage reduces inequality in the lower tail of the wage distribution, though by substantially less than previous estimates, suggesting that rising lower tail inequality after 1980 primarily reflects underlying wage structure changes rather than an unmasking of latent inequality. These wage effects extend to p...
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作者：Cook, Philip J.; Kang, Songman
作者单位：Duke University; Hanyang University
摘要：Dropouts have high crime rates, but is there a direct causal link? This study, utilizing administrative data for six cohorts of public school children in North Carolina, demonstrates that those born just after the cut date for enrolling in public kindergarten are more likely to drop out of high school before graduation and to commit a felony offense by age 19. We present suggestive evidence that dropout mediates criminal involvement. Paradoxically, these late-entry students outperform their gr...
